Anil Anand
“I challenge the BJP to contest Lok Sabha elections in Kashmir Valley. I will quit politics if the national party’s candidates do not lose their security deposits. If the BJP was confident of its claims on developmental and normalcy, then the party should field its candidates in the three seats of Kashmir Valley.”
-National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah-
“We do not have sufficient base in Kashmir to win elections. My fervent appeal to people of Kashmir is that do not vote for three dynastic parties- National Conference, Congress and Peoples Democratic Party (all part of I.N.D.I.A combine).
-Home Minister Amit Shah at a poll rally in Jammu-
The two statements coming one after the other in quick succession in the midst of electioneering, have to be juxtaposed to be read in a proper context. Although Mr Shah had expressed similar views much earlier in an interview but expressing same thoughts in the course of an election rally holds significance.
Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Mr Shah are not the ones who easily cede political space or publicly admit the ground realities unfavourable to either their government or the party. Mr Shah, truly, has sprang a surprise.
Why did he rather than accepting National Conference leader’s challenge preferred to look the other way round? What could be the political modalities behind BJP hinting at leaving the electoral field wide-open in Kashmir Valley that too when the Prime Minister has set a target of winning 400 seats with every segment assuming significance?
Although polling in the three seats of the Valley is in the later phases, Mr Shah has clearly hinted at the BJP’s intent. More than Abdullah’s challenge, he, ostensibly, is guided by the prevailing ground realities. It is an admission of the fact that despite an all-out effort by the BJP using all means including the advantages of the ruling machinery, the saffron party has not been able to garner much political support in the Muslim majority Kashmir. A clear fall-out of the events concerning abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019 and related wide-ranging Constitutional changes of far-reaching consequence for the people of the Union Territory (UT).
Mr Shah seemed to have made a strategic move by admitting BJP’s weak position in the Valley. He has tried to kill two birds with a single stone. Firstly, the attempt is to counter strong fear in the UT that the BJP was inclined to make an “electoral dent” in the Valley by winning at least one out of the three seats, as a mark of acceptance by the locals of Modi Government’s Kashmir policy post abrogation of Article 370. This public fear has to be viewed in the backdrop of chequered history of rigged and manipulated elections in the past in Jammu and Kashmir.
Second and even more importantly the likelihood of BJP deciding not to contest Lok Sabha elections in the Valley, has a direct bearing on the long overdue assembly elections. Given the fact that the Supreme Court has directed the Centre to hold assembly elections before September 30, 2024, both Mr Modi and Mr Shah have committed themselves to meet this deadline, a humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha elections would lead to weakening the BJP’s case in the assembly elections which the party will like to win at all costs.
Having laid so much emphasis on Jammu and Kashmir with respect to its core agenda of abrogating Article 370, and terming it as among the top achievements of the Narendra Modi government, the poll scenario in the Union Territory (read Kashmir) seemed to have put the BJP in catch22 position. Not contesting Lok Sabha elections will have more psychological and political disadvantages than the advantages for the party, in terms of assembly elections and thereof.
Whom would the BJP support in the event of abstaining from three Lok Sabha constituencies of Kashmir with Mr Shah’s clarion call to not vote for three “dynastic parties”? Will the party remain a mute spectator?
Under the prevailing circumstances and given the high stakes that BJP has laid on its Kashmir policy, it will be difficult for the party to remain a ringside viewer. The only option will be to back the political groups, barring the three mainline parties, which are perceived to have been supported and propelled by the ruling dispensation.
That leaves the BJP with options to back recently floated Apni Party, led by a former minister in the PDP-BJP coalition government headed by Ms Mehbooba Mufti, Altaf Bukhari, former Congress veteran Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and Peoples Conference of Mr Sajjad Lone, who was a minister in the same cabinet from BJP quota and has often described Mr Modi as his “elder brother”. Unless the reports that the BJP poll strategist could also think in terms of propping up some independent candidates, are proved wrong, Mr Shah has already made his party’s choices clear.
Up till now all the three political players, Azad, Bukhari and Lone, have been taking pain to shrug off criticism of their being the ‘B’ team of the BJP. And that they were drawing power from New Delhi. In the event of BJP staying away from the electoral contest and Mr Shah’s appeal not to vote for three dynastic parties, the facts regarding what direction the political tide could take in Kashmir have been laid threadbare.
In this context a statement made by Mr Bukhari during the same course also makes an interesting reading. Replying to a question on his recent meeting with BJP leaders in Srinagar, he said, “my day has not come. When my day comes the entire BJP will be behind me.” This statement can be nuanced both in respect of Lok Sabha and assembly elections.
Mr Shah’s public admission on BJP not being in a position of strength in Kashmir has also to be viewed in the overall context of prevailing political uncertainty in what was the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir and presently cut into two UTs of J & K and Ladakh. All the three regions of the former state are touched by different dimensions of protests and resentment on account of the post August 5, 2019 Constitutional changes. And the resultant unfulfilled promises pertaining to issues of political empowerment, protection of rights and, bread and butter.
Ladakh where polling is to take place on May 20 is already up in arms. Ladakhis are demanding constitutional protection of their ethnic character and related issues through Schedule 6, which was promised by the Centre at the time of abrogation of Article 370. However, of late, they have been cold shouldered by the Centre.
That raises a question how the BJP will contest to retain the Ladakh Lok Sabha seat, it had won in 2014 and 2019, with both Leh and Kargil segments of the hilly desert uniting in support of their demands. That will be the next question after Kashmir that BJP will have to soon address.
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