Harsha Kakar
The last few months appeared to bring forth the prospects of talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. In Jan and Feb, there were two meetings of the core group in Kabul, with the promise of resumption of talks pushed by Pakistan. Sartaj Aziz, the Foreign Affairs advisor of Pakistan announced in the US recently, that since the Taliban leadership is located in Pakistan and their families reside there, the Pakistan government does possess power over them. However, the Taliban turned down the offer for talks. This action changed the dynamics of the region and affected a number of nations including India.
For Pakistan, which had hoped that it could place part of the Taliban leadership in Kabul or have them govern some provinces of the country, this has come as a setback. Pakistan has always considered Afghanistan as its strategic depth. It would now look at other options including strengthening the possible Taliban summer offensive. The worry for Pakistan is the secure base that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or more commonly known as the TTP, which targets them continues to have in Afghanistan. The TTP has made suicide attacks and bomb blasts a daily occurrence in Pakistan. Increased operations against them, have only slowed down their pace of attacks, but not stopped them.
The US has been involved in Afghanistan since the attacks of 9/11. It has been leading a NATO force to rid the country of the Taliban. It has known from the start that it could never win the battle and hence was seeking a honourable exit. Though it had announced its withdrawal, however, the resurgence of the Taliban compelled it to reassess its plans. The cancellation of the talks has been a setback. The US has been pumping in arms and aid to Pakistan, with the hope that it would bring the Haqqani network and the Taliban under control. Though this action has been objected both within the nation and from India, it has continued pumping good money after bad, with no success. The possible summer offensive would be an indicator of the future andin all probability would only prevent them from withdrawing completely.
For China and the Central Asian Republics (CAR), the prolonging of the conflict only increases the rise of terrorism and militancy in their regions. Afghanistan would continue to be a feeding ground as also a safe sanctuary for terrorists, spreading their ideology in their home countries. President Putin had warned CAR nations earlier to expect an enhancement of terrorist activities on their soil. For China, whose Xinjiang province militants gain support and training in Afghanistan, this Taliban decision would increase its commitments in Xinjiang.
India has been enhancing its investment in Afghanistan. It has become a major contributor to development projects within the country. In addition, it isinvestingin the development of the Chabahar port in Iran to create an alternate route to Afghanistan and the CAR, bypassing Pakistan. India has also gifted three MI-35 Helicopter Gunships to Afghanistan to strengthen its battle against the Taliban. Thus the cancellation of peace talks would affect India’s investments in the country and its future plans of playing a greater role in the region.However, it has to continue its engagement, such that if peace does come, India would end up as a major player.
For Afghanistan, the approaching summer, would bring greater bloodshed and problems. The nation’s security forces are already over stretched. It has still not been able to regain the southern districts of Sangincaptured by the Taliban in the winters. An enhanced Taliban offensive in the coming months, with a possible increase in suicide attacks would only enhance those displaced and result in loss of territory to them. It can only hope for some respite, if the various factions increase their internal struggles for domination and power, rather than engage the state and its population.
In this quagmire of confusion is the rising power of the IS. It has begun to gain ground and increase its support base. Though the Taliban has launched an offensive against it, however, it still continues to grow. It could soon begin spreading its tentacles in the region and affect a larger area employing its brutal methodology of dealing with its enemies.
The Taliban obtains its finances by indulging in production and movement of drugs. This has affected nations around the region with impacts all the way to the western world. The more provinces it brings under its control, the greater the production and greater the availability at cheaper rates.
The geo- strategic location of Afghanistan enables it to cast a wide influence over the surrounding region. It is surrounded by volatile nations and thus instability in Afghanistan creates instability in the region around it, resulting in an unstable Eurasia. It thus becomes imperative for nations which possess influence and power over Pakistan to push the country to bring the Taliban to book. Pakistan’s fears that if pushed the Taliban may turn inwards, which could only add to their problems, an issue they should have been prepared for. Hillary Clinton, while she was the Secretary of State stated, “You can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. Eventually they are going to turn on whoever has them in their backyard”. The world has to force Pakistan to act, irrespective on whether the snakes turn on them or not, if an entire region is to be rid of militancy.For starters, the US should stop all supplies of arms and aid, unless Pakistan forces the Taliban to adopt peace and come to the negotiating table. Such an action is the need of the hour.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army )
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