Dr Arya Sharma, Rohit Kumar
The recent surge in India’s stature as a global power has led to varying expectations . The proactive expansion of Delhi’s room in conflict ridden middle east and eastern Europe has been widely acknowledged globally . The Indian diplomacy of tightrope balancing between west and Russia has been seen as a reliable strategic autonomy of India in the world. Delhi can take credit for significantly keeping a neutrality and continuously engaging in promotion of peace and mutual coexistence . But in case of south Asia India’s own kitchen garden is full of pests.
The recent political tremors in south Asia room has created a challenging situation for India. New Delhi is at the early stage of denial but the reality is evolving.
From Pt Nehru’s vision of Mutual Coexistense and cooperation to attraction has been underlying goal of Indian foreign policy in its neighbourhood. But this vision was tarnished by China during 1962 war . The post war era was of turmoil in which we saw two more wars and political trouble but the foreign policy stance shifted towards realism. It focused on maintaining dominance and preventing external influence. Post 1990 ‘s endorsement of Gujral Doctorine led to the promotion of Social Constructivism. Centrality towards accommodation and conflict resolution in neighbourhood was adopted. But the doctrine had a lackadaisical approach towards long standing bilateral issues between India and its neighbours.
Post 2014 era is now dominated by the Modi Government . All the successive eras either it be 1.0 or 2.0 or 3.0 are being monopolised by neighbourhood first supplemented by extended neighbourhood policy. Has all these paid off?
New Delhi has been on the early stage of denial but the reality is something else . India is trying the use the horse of internationalisation which is now getting old. The Achromatic discourse on foreign policy with very little questioning of the assumptions underlying it, has bitten back Delhi.
The emergence of new Dhaka in recent past has led to policy backslashing. Earlier it was only Malda gap that used to differentiate India from Bangladesh but now the differences have grown. Its a harsh truth that Delhi missed a big moment in the neighbourhood. India’s Bangladeshi trump card in Dhaka backfired which led to rise of anti Indian sentiments in Dhaka and back sliding of democratic values has led to emergence of authoritarianism. This has made India’s neighbours vulnerable to Chinese expansionist ambitions. The assailability of North east has been a bone in the Delhi’s neck. This has also has strategic implication for India in Bay of Bengal region.
India’s gateway to the southeast is also on the verge of peril. The strategic importance of Myanmar for India’s Act East Policy has been hampered in recent upsurge. The junta authoritarian ideology constantly clashes with democratic values propounded by New Delhi. Though Myanmar provides gateway to India in southeast Asia but the light on the gates has been fused by the despotic rule. Pro Beijing junta is alarming Indian ambitions in South East Asia.
The matter of fact is that our southern neighbours are also not behind in this race of diplomatic backstabbing . The rise of India Out campaign in Maldives belied hopes of India as a net security provider in Indian ocean region . New Delhi’s inability to channelize Maldivian cause in its favour is very big diplomatic lapse by putting all eggs in one basket. The Indian internationalisation got overshadowed by the Dragon Debt Diplomacy . New Delhi’s push for security diplomacy crumbled badly in front of Chinese large scale investment . On the other hand, the relations with Colombo has also been on a rollercoaster ride. From sending peace keeping forces to taking back the proposed container shipyard the relations have travelled a long distance . But the new speedbreaker is again the Dragon . From building a port to toppling down of the Government the Beijing’s indulgence has exceptionally increased. This has led to maritime encirclement of India. In future China can use this as a strategic leverage to tame India with its spy diplomacy. In the recents issue of economic depression and bankruptcy New Delhi once again failed to seize an opportunity in Colombo.
Since independence the northern borders are in perplexed state. Delhi has been in a constant conflict with Islamabad both diplomatically and militarily. The series of constant backstabbings by Pakistan still continues after three full fledged wars. This shows polarity between two states. In this Islamabad metamorphosed itself from conventional warfare to proxy war that is bleeding India with thousand cuts. This strategy shift led to series of events starting from insurgency in Kashmir to attack in several army bases such as Pathankot, Pulwama and Uri and Fidayeen attacks on local population . This further created bitterness in the Islamabad-Delhi relations.The Indian diplomacy constantly tried to isolate Pakistan at international forum but the constant support of Beijing always saved Pakistan from the wrath of international community be it in UN or FATF.
From ‘Roti Beti Ka Rishta to estranged relationship, from territorial disputes to ethnic conflicts Indian Nepal relations have been both syncline and anticline. India’s continuous vouching for democratic regime and constitutional Government has been perceived by Nepal as a big brother’s attitude. The use of anti India notion for political ambitions has created a fault-line between the two nations . Kathmandu still blames India for economic blockade and ethnic favouritism. Constant territorial disputes and increasing Beijing presence in Nepal has bamboozled India ‘s Himalayan plan . Nepal’s diplomatic stance of neutrality between New Delhi and Beijing has led to diplomatic wedging between the Himalayan neighbours . The inclination of Kathmandu towards Beijing is a big diplomatic negligence for southern blocks’ Himalayan foreign policy.
On the other hand our other Himalayan neighbour which has a close proximity to the chicken neck corridor is also nowadays bewildered by the mighty Dragon. The recent reach-out from Beijing toward Thimphu has once again showed the cracks in the Indian foreign policy. Though Bhutan does not have any diplomatic relations with Beijing but constant effort may change the course. India’s lackadaisical foreign policy towards Bhutan has backfired to some extent.
The recent challenges for Indian foreign policy in south Asia is an uphill task. If we see the recent challenges for India and South Asia, it has its root in colonial legacy that is artificial division of boundaries creating territorial dispute through porous borders from east to west and north to south. The British policies of divide and rule created ethnic conflict and communal faultlines. This gave birth to complex geopolitical landscape challenges for India. The shifting mandates in the neighbourhood countries political sphere have been a thorn in India’s foot. This has hindered India’s efforts of overcoming the geopolitical underdog tag. This also led to refugee crisis in the adjacent states which is a threat to India’s internal security. The immediate challenge for New Delhi is now neighbourhood reengagement in this era turmoil.
Whether intended or not Delhi is too far in neighbourly tweetup. The line that India has followed has never been perennially fruitful. India’s broad diplomatic aspirations from SAARC to BITMSETC or from Gujral doctrine to neighbourhood first has always been narrowed down by the circumstances or by the fellow countries. To live upto its expectation of regional influential power in South Asia the Southern block should make efforts to engage with all power centres in south asia. There is a need of enormous strategic patience at the Indian end to engage with the turmoil ridden neighbours. Although New Delhi is secure under its own skill but to cater the ambition of rising India it should increase indulgence in south asian foreign policy. Indian should keep distance from the ways that ponder political prejudice and discourage common sense. New Delhi should focus on the belief of centrality of commerce and strong potential commitment to transcend the earlier pathologies in building new relations. To tame the ambitious Dragon Debt and Trade diplomacy New Delhi should engage with countries like USA, Australia, Japan. As south Asia is geographically linked region India foreign policy should be more focused towards interregional capacity building via track two diplomacy by increasing people to people contact.
21st century is the century of Asia and South Asia being an epitome on centrality cannot be easily ignored. So a well fortified and inclusive foreign policy is need of the hour for India. New Delhi should increase its geopolitical and geoeconomics footprint so as to remain relevant in south asian geopolitics.
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