SINGAPORE, Sept 12: Chicago soybean futures rose for a second consecutive day on Thursday, ahead of a key U.S. Government report which is expected to forecast lower production following hot and dry weather across the country’s crop belt.
Corn and wheat edged lower, giving up some of the gains seen over the past two sessions in the run-up to the release of crop data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 1600 GMT.
‘The market is certainly estimating a fairly large cut in production for soybeans and the question is what the USDA is going to do to demand on the balance sheet,’ said Brett Cooper, senior markets manager at INTL FCStone Australia.
‘For corn there could be slight reduction in production estimate but reality is that harvest is moving along pretty quickly for this time of the year and all early reports indicate very good yields.’
Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans rose 0.2 percent to $13.60-1/2 a bushel by 0243 GMT, while December corn fell 0.3 percent to $4.71 a bushel.
December wheat slid 0.2 percent to $6.46-3/4 a bushel.
The USDA is expected to trim its forecasts for the 2013 U.S. Corn and soybean harvest as late summer heat stressed crops, with the biggest cuts seen in soybeans.
August is the critical growth period for soy as the crop sets and fills pods whereas the corn crop went through its key growth stage in late July when conditions were milder.
The USDA is expected to trim its soybean yield estimate to 41.2 bushels per acre from 42.6 bushels in August, according to a Reuters poll.
A blast of late-summer heat baking the U.S. Midwest turned attention back to dry conditions that are thought to have stressed the soybean crop and lowered yields.
Light rainfall is expected in portions of the U.S. Midwest corn and soybean growing region, but a large portion of the soy area will remain dry, according to Commodity Weather Group.
The best chance for rain is from the Nebraska/Kansas and Missouri/Iowa border in the western Midwest extending to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio in the east, the firm said.
Crop forecaster Lanworth has raised its forecast for world corn production due to improved expectations for harvests in the United States and Ukraine.
Lanworth boosted its outlook for the 2013/14 Ukraine corn crop by 3 percent to 26.4 million tonnes due to ‘moderately wet and unexpectedly cool conditions in late August’. It nudged up its U.S. Corn harvest forecast to 13.396 million bushels, based on a yield of 152.2 bushels per acre, from 13.330 million.
Prices at 0243 GMT
Contract Last Change Pct chg MA 30 RSI
CBOT wheat 646.75 -1.25 -0.19% 865.97 47
CBOT corn 471.00 -1.50 -0.32% 757.61 40
CBOT soy 1360.50 2.25 +0.17% 1575.89 53
CBOT rice $15.51 -$0.07 -0.42% $15.49 45
WTI crude $107.65 $0.09 +0.08% $89.57 48
Currencies
Euro/dlr $1.331 $0.102
USD/AUD 0.926 -0.129
Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential
(AGENCIES)
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