Poonam I Kaushish
Even as one empathises with Jews and Palestines caught in the crossfire of Hamas-Israeli forces and people trapped in the crosshairs of Russia-Ukraine’s war, few have paid scant attention to hostilities in India. Succinctly, poster war between arch rivals BJP-Congress, which promises to get vicious and acerbic with announcement of polls in 5 States next month. Jumla vs Ravaan.
However, this is just thin edge of the wedge. More important are ramifications of the caste survey by Opposition-ruled Bihar which now has ballooned to other States: Odisha, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka as it captures the socio-political imagination, going beyond electoral tags and identities to divide people on caste lines, as happened during Advani’s Ayodhya rath yatra Mandir-Mandal row 1990.
Recall, Janata Dal constituents were Mandal Commission’s largest beneficiary. The Samajwadi and RJD represent Yadavs, RLD and INLD Jats, Karnataka’s Gowdas Vokkaligas. BJP has successfully created a wedge between Yadav-non-Yadav OBCs in UP and Bihar, thereby reducing these Parties influence. But for how long?
In INDIA bloc’s thinking when caste becomes central to livelihood issues which are centred on identification and reservation, they feel there is a greater chance it will have greater electoral pull than religion. Congress’s Rahul has already sounded the bugle “Jitne abadi utna haq,” to garner votes and somehow dislodge Prime Minister Modi.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish has called for lifting 50% reservation ceiling. Rajasthan’s Gehlot has announced 6% reservation to Most Backward Castes in addition to 21% for OBCs.
On the face of it, Opposition leaders assert goal of caste census is OBCs welfare, Sic. It’s a ploy to divide Hindu votes on caste lines to weaken BJP in 2024 elections. Said a senior Congress leader, “Caste census would open another flank and create problems for BJP. The axis would be pro-Modi vs anti-Modi and we will try to mobilise OBCs. This will be Mandal 2.0, different from Mandal 1.0 which involved aggressive OBC mobilization.”
Failing to realize politicisation of caste is a double-edged sword. Caste needs politics as much as politics need caste. When caste groupings make politics their sphere of activities they get a chance to assert their identity and strive for power and position.
Sadly to gain vote-banks none have paid heed to the Frankenstein they have unleashed. True, none can fault granting equal opportunities to all. But whether this would translate into equal outcome is debatable. Questionably, will not caste further fractionalize national politics? Will the run-up to 2024 elections be fought on caste basis?
For BJP caste might not have become a big issue as it has now, had it not been for the Party’s bid to retain the Hindu vote-bank . Certainly, Ayodhya temple’s sanctification slated for January might be an electoral draw. Yet, it may not be a big political issue as Babri Masjid demolition was December 1992 .
Besides, the Party shot itself in the foot by delaying the decennial Census 2021-2026, resulting in Opposition combine promising a caste-based Census soon. Though, INDIA bloc is yet to prove it has the delivery mechanism to take on BJP at grassroots level, vis-à-vis interests and aspirations of aam aadmi. As a counter, BJP too could promise caste census in 2026, before Opposition gets its act together.
As it stands BJP has the highest support of OBCs which has grown exponentially from 7% in 1971 to 22% in 2009 and doubled to 44% in 2019. The NDA received 54% OBC support in 2019. As Modi hails from this community, the Party’s claim of higher representation to OBCs in ticket allocations and at the Centre alongside formation of the Justice Rohini OBC Commission to address their issues through the Constitutional framework have helped it get OBC support.
Hence, Party might implement the Commission’s report to counter Opposition’s narrative of “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari” to further consolidate its support amongst lower OBCs. However, this strategy is fraught with risks as BJP would need to renounce its formula of consolidating caste groups in Hindutva’s name and strong nationalism.
Pertinently, Justice Rohini Commission formed 2017 for sub-categorisation of OBC groups, over 2,600 in the Central OBC list, accounting for 41%-52% of population, getting 27% reservation in Central Government jobs and educational institutions, so that benefits could be equitably redistributed submitted its report in July. Its finding found 97% jobs and education seats had gone to 25% of OBC sub-castes while 983 OBC communities had zero representation.
Interestingly, OBC sub-categorisation has been implemented at Panchayat level by West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra, Telangana, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, J&K, Haryana and Puducherry. An example in Bihar there are two categories: OBC 1 and OBC 2 (Economically Backward Classes). The former has 33 sub-caste groups, latter 113 of which 18% State Government jobs and seats in educational institutes are reserved for EBCs, 12% for OBC 1 castes and 3% for OBC women.
BJP has also focussed its efforts on non-dominant OBCs and MBC, which have been ignored by Opposition Parties. This strategy has helped the Party against the Mahagathbandhan in UP 2019 general elections across all socio-economic classes amongst OBCs, except middle class.
Resulting in SP being reduced from 35 MPs in 2004 to just 5 in 2019; RJD from 22 seats in 1999 and 2004 to zilch in 2019; RLD from 5 seats in 2009 to nil in 2019; INLD from 5 in 1999 to zero in 2019 and JD(S) from 16 in 1996 to 1in 2019.
The BJP over 9 years has successful broken caste-based narratives, uniting upper castes, backwards, Dalits and tribals under its Hindutva umbrella and nationalism pitch. Consequently, out of every 100 BJP voters 49 belong to OBC community. A fact which bugs INDIA.
The sub-categorisation of OBCs and separate quotas for MBC’s who account for over 75% of OBC population could further consolidate their support in favour of BJP in the 2024 general elections, deflect attention from the caste census as also help break the Opposition’s narrative.
Conversely, the more demands for caste surveys and reservations are raised, there is an equally greater chance and opportunity for BJP to package it as a ‘divisive agenda’ against their ‘national unification call’ centred around Hindutva. Any wonder its UP Chief Minister Yogi has declared Sanatana Dharma as the only religion to counter Bihar’s caste survey. No matter this could open a Pandora’s box.
However, unleashing the Rohini Commission report is fraught with risks. Any effort to polarise votes on the basis of caste could mean moving away from tried-and-tested Hindutva and nationalism plank of the Party.
Currently, OBCs are seen as two blocks by BJP — dominant and non-dominant, upper and lower. It intends to woo dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, and Kushwahas in Bihar and UP and Vokkaligas in Karnataka. Any sub-categorisation will close doors on these sub-castes and make Mandal 1 progenies Akhilesh, Lalu and Nitish stronger in their communities.
Will the BJP take such a risk before 2024? This remains to be seen. Either way the caste Frankenstein must be stopped. This is no time for mindless populism of Mandal vs Kamandal politics as it will only further divide people on caste lines and increase the chasm between the haves and have-nots. If Bharat has to reach its pinnacle of success it cannot revel in petty politricks. —- INFA
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