Brig Anil Gupta
The Government of Jammu & Kashmir has set in motion the process of move to the summer capital. The coming summer will witness the reverse of roles wherein the hitherto fore ruling partners would be donning the role of the opposition and the erstwhile opposition parties would occupy the seats of power and would have to face the heat. The new alliance government of BJP & PDP despite having different ideologies has been stitched together to provide an honest, sincere, effective and unbiased government with holistic and integrated development as its USP. Notwithstanding the propaganda launched by the opponents, the people of the state have high hopes from the alliance government. How far the government succeeds will to a large extent depend on the ensuing summer of 2015.
The inimical forces will leave no stone unturned to make the summer “a summer of trial and challenges”. A peaceful environment is a pre-requisite for the development process to take off and sustain. Our unfriendly neighbour through ISI, its Army and loyal mouthpiece Hurriyat would try all the tricks in the bag to disturb the peace in the state and create an atmosphere of insecurity and uncertainty with the twin aim of hitting the economy and stalling the development process. Pakistan will continue to keep the “Kashmir Issue” alive through its hostile media, cross-border firing, and state sponsored terrorism, fifth columnists and jihadi elements. ISI would have additional resources at its disposal in form of terrorists released from Afghanistan after the US drawdown. It would unleash the likes of Syed Sallahudin, Hafiz Sayeed and Lakhvi to create as much trouble as possible so that the state remains disturbed. The presence of large number of terrorists in training camps and launch pads across the line of control and international border does not augur well and in fact is a grim reminder of shape of things to unfold. The international terror outfits like the Al Qaeda and ISIS may also join in to fish in the troubled waters.
Why should Pakistan be interested in fomenting trouble in Jammu & Kashmir? The answer is simple. Pakistan is being run by a sham democratic puppet government. The real power lies in the hands of the Army whose chief has been often harping that “Jammu& Kashmir is the umbilical cord of Pakistan.” Pakistan Army is being given tough time at home by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. It has lost its credibility among the public after the US raid deep inside Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden, bold attacks by TTP on army establishments with the help of insiders and the latest massacre at an Army School in Peshawar. The Pak Army leadership believes that only thing that can help them regain their lost credibility is to raise the anti-India bogey. ISI is the mastermind as well as sponsor of the on-going proxy war in the state. It has also invested huge sum in providing moral, material and diplomatic support to the separatist movement in the state spearheaded by its own creation the Hurriyat.
So, it’s clear that the ensuing summer would become a test bed for the success of the new alliance government in the state. It should be ready for its baptism by fire. Apart from astute leadership of the Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, it would also require an alert and determined administrative machinery to meet the challenge. While tackling the challenge posed by the inimical forces it would also have to ensure that no excesses take place and co-lateral damage is avoided at all costs. It is a tough call and would require a pro-active approach with total synergy between all the stake holders. The administration will have to be pro-active, anticipative and ready to act quickly in response to a developing situation. The security forces will need to not only concentrate on zero infiltration but also launch well- coordinated andprecise operations based on specific intelligence in the hinterland. The targets in the hinterland will be lax security forces, isolated police posts, political leaders and religious places with the twin aim of provoking the security forces or triggering communal trouble.The Jammu & Kashmir police will have to play a very vital and major role in thwarting the enemy’s nefarious design. The police will need to keep its eyes and ears glued to the ground in order to provide timely information and actionable intelligence. The efforts of multifarious intelligence agencies operating in the state will need to be coordinated to avoid duplicity and one up man ship. A round the clock all weather surveillance across with the capability to look deep inside to cover the training camps and launch pads is a pre-requisite. Settlements close to the IB and LOC that can provide shelter to the infiltrators will also need to be kept under constant observation. Sympathisers, Over Ground Workers and hawala operators will require keeping under check and rendering non-effective. An efficient and well-oiled surveillance and intelligence network will play an important role to remain pro-active and ready to neutralise the enemy’s ploy.
An important element of Pak strategy will be the utilisation of the Hurriyat. Mufti will need to use his deft political acumen to devise a strategy of managing the Hurriyat.The Hurriyat to a large extent has already been rendered ineffective.”Hurriyat Conference and its leadership are products not of any Kashmiri movement but of the ISI exigency planning ; the role assigned to Hurriyat being only one of playing the game as charted in Rawalpindi’s satellite township which houses the ISI headquarters,” according to ON Dhar, a well- known Kashmiri analyst. The writ of Hurriyat runs only in the parts of old Srinagar city. It is a fractured and dis-integrated organisation. It uses street violence and mobs to incite violence and create disruption in the normal functioning of the government. It enjoys very little popular support as is evident from its repeated refusal to join the electoral battle. As a fish cannot survive without water the separatists cannot survive for long without popular support. The Hurriyat is running out of oxygen. Mufti will have to ensure that the supply of oxygen to the Hurriyat is totally eliminated. It can only happen when the electronic media realises that by discussing them in prime-time debates it is doing no good to national cause but only furthering the agenda of the ISI.
The security forces will do everything possible to meet the military challenge. However, the bigger challenge awaiting the alliance government is the political challenge. Political management of the environment to prevent a repeat of summers of 2008 or 2010 is also necessary. Mufti has been trying to do the same from day one of his assuming the coveted office but his effort has been mired with controversies. The alliance will do well to create a favourable public opinion before making any big/controversial announcements. To quash rumours, negate the propaganda andfor buildinga favourable public opinion, a well-conceived information campaign as part of the “psy ops” will have to be launched by the state. The information department of the state needs to be modernised and made more professional. An important aspect of political management is to deny triggers that can stir agitations and protests. Security Forces will have to act with due care to deny any triggers to Hurriyat or its cronies. Political leadership on its part will have to display maturity to avoid triggers that may pitch one region against the other or one religious group against the other (as it happened during Amarnath row) or draw battle-lines based on hard core ideologies. The alliance government will also be mindful of the fact that mere “agenda of good governance” may not suffice and political management of the environment is needed to restore complete normalcy in the state.
The Government at New Delhi cannot remain isolated from what happens in the state. A fine coordination between both the governments is mandatory. The central government will need to keep a very close watch on the happenings in the state. Pak will try to create trouble in all the three regions of the state with a view to discourage the tourists and preventing development process to take-off. It will provide fodder to the opposition parties who will be waiting in the wings to grab any opportunity to destabilise the government and proclaim the alliance as a failure. The nation should also be prepared to face a contingency wherein the things go out of control, though remote, it cannot be ruled out. The summer of 2015 therefore is not going to be pleasant for the ruling coalition but full of challenges, turmoil and turbulence. The alliance partners will do well to ensure that the morale of the armed forces is not affected in any way through their utterances/actions. They as usual will be in the forefront to bear the brunt.
(The author is a Jammu based security and strategic analyst. )
Follow our WhatsApp channel