Anil Anand
This is the tale of two National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies- one past and the other remaining a partial one at present. One of them in Kashmir whereas the other one in Bihar. One is credited or discredited with having facilitated the first BJP participated government in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir before the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) fell in the bad books of the former. The other Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJSP) founded and nurtured by the once dalit icon and known more popularly as “political weathercock”, Mr Ram Vilas Paswan, still has one leg in the NDA court while having strategically parted ways with it in the state during the last Bihar assembly elections.
The LJSP was again in the news few days back after being totally wiped out of the Bihar Legislative Assembly last year. Its lone MLA, Mr Raj Kumar Singh, after having cross voted during the deputy speaker’s election in violation of his party’s diktat, finally quit and joined the Janata Dal (U) synonymous with chief minister, Mr Nitish Kumar. Earlier, in February last, the lone LSJP member of the Legislative Council, Ms Nutan Singh had joined BJP.
The current state of affairs of PDP and LJSP is a reflection on how the politics of NDA alliance has undergone sea change from the time of Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Mr Narendra Modi. The tale of a former and currently a partial NDA ally is that of miscalculation on their part that led to embarking on road to decimation. The BJP strategists should be rejoicing having played their cards well in both the cases.
There was no way the BJP could have even dreamt of forming a government in Jammu and Kashmir without the backing of a Kashmir-centric political party having sizable number of MLAs. And the PDP came handy. The goal achieved, they dumped the PDP after three years of uneasy alliance which in any case gave a foothold to the BJP in the erstwhile state before it was demoted to a Union Territory.
A clear outcome of the PDP-BJP alliance is that the latter has become a main political player in the Union Territory. Earlier, it had to be content with having few pockets of influence only in the Jammu region. However, the situation has undergone a dramatic shift ever since.
Last year’s Bihar assembly elections had presented a similar dramatic scene with LJSP after the death of its founder Mr Ram Vilas Paswan becoming rudderless and surprisingly withdrew from the NDA but only in the state. It still remains to be the ruling alliance partner in Delhi. It is in the backdrop of this dichotomous situation that LJSP-JD (U) dual is continuing whereas the elder partner in the NDA alliance the BJP is either simply looking the other way or rejoicing. After all, in the ultimate context weakened LJSP and JD (U) in Bihar augurs well for the BJP’s future in the state. And the game goes on.
Ostensibly, Mr Kumar could make a sense of what is transpiring in the NDA in context to the BJP’s gameplan. And that is why he has also harped on a plan to consolidate his position by devouring smaller parties either through mergers or by poaching of legislators. The recent merger of former Union Minister, Mr Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) with JD (U) and LJSP legislators joining JD(U) are part of this model.
Interestingly, the JD (U) has been following the same model which is being pursued by the BJP to expand its base in the states and areas where it did not exist or form governments where it was short of majority. The BJP had recently poached half-a-dozen MLAs of the JD (U) in one of the North Eastern states. The JD (U) has in turn played the same trick on LJSP.
Coming back to LJSP which is struggling to keep its house intact under the fledgling leadership of Paswan senior’s son, Mr Chirag Paswan. In the absence of his politically-crafty father, he is apparently finding it difficult to deal with the BJP strategists or perhaps unable to fathom their gameplans. It is not difficult to understand that on whose bidding did Chirag upped the ante against Mr Kumar and even went a step further by withdrawing from the NDA before the assembly elections.
From all available indications he had been used by the powers that be to weaken Mr Kumar and limit JD (U) electoral success in the assembly elections so as to keep him under check. As was evident Mr Chirag Paswan went all out targeting Mr Kumar, during his election campaign hoping for a better deal after the elections.
The task was accomplished as per the plan and Mr Kumar’s JD (U) failed to perform beyond a level thereby making him more dependent on the BJP. However, the LJSP was totally decimated in the process as it smarted under the double whammy of absence of Paswan senior and having walked-out of the NDA.
It is almost a year after the Bihar assembly elections that Mr Chirag Paswan has been waiting in the wings for his rehabilitation in Delhi but there still seem to be no signs. With LJSP weakening by the day in its pocket boroughs of Bihar, his capacity to bargain and seek remuneration for the role well played during Bihar polls, is diminishing by the day.
There lies the trap and similarity between PDP and LJSP with common denominator being the BJP. Proverbially speaking and as is said everything is fair in love and war, and of course politics. In this light the happenings with the two regional parties vis-a-vis the strongest political party of the world are justified.
However, on the issue of “coalition dharma”, which is often referred to by the coalition partners whenever the alliance is in crisis, these developments have charted an interesting course.
Another common denominator in the PDP-LJSP context is that both the parties were left halfway through the alliance when their founders Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and Mr Ram Vilas Paswan had died. The only marked difference is that the Mufti’s daughter Ms Mehbooba Mufti did become chief minister with BJP’s help before the alliance broke whereas Mr Chirag Paswan is still waiting for such an opening in the event of a cabinet reshuffle in Delhi.
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