Tension at borders

Dr Satish Misra
Ceasefire violations at the India-Pakistan border and killing of five Indian soldiers on August 6 by Pakistani Army are indeed intriguing as they belie all hope that had been aroused after a democratically elected Government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif assumed power in June this year.
For almost a week, tensions have been mounting along the Line of Control as Pakistani troops violated the ceasefire twice on August 12 and again on August 13. In total, Pakistani troops violated the ceasefire eight times in the last four days.
At the same time, intrusions by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China into the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in April this year and thereafter aggressive patrolling also defy normal logic. It also raises some vital questions like if there is a collusive understanding between Beijing and Islamabad or there is something more than meets the eye.
Reasons for an unexpected aggression on country’s northern and western borders are possibly rooted in not only a close Sino-Pak relationship but also in the nature of the new regimes that have assumed power in China and Pakistan. Mixed with the coming of new power equations prevailing and evolving in Beijing and Islamabad, is the India domestic situation.
While the two new regimes in our immediate neighbourhood are trying to redefine their relationship with their respective Armed Forces, prevailing political uncertainty in the country invites inimical forces to fish in troubled waters.
Both in China as well as in Pakistan, military establishments are the most powerful institutions in policy making as well as decision making. Relatively young leaders Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang assumed charge as the president and prime minister of China in March this year replacing the old leadership of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.
Similarly, Islamabad witnessed a democratic change when an elected Pakistan People’s Party led Government was replaced by another democratically elected Government of Pakistan Muslim League (N) in June this year.
Power struggle for supremacy between the Government and Military is but natural and its manifestation at borders with India may have been one of reasons for more frequent military tensions.
Another reason for Pakistani aggression on borders is the impending withdrawal rather draw-down of the US forces in Afghanistan. Pakistani Army, particularly its powerful ISI which had developed into a powerful institution over the years, has always considered Afghanistan its backyard and removal of Taliban regime by the US-led forces in Kabul in 2001 has not gone well with Pakistan military establishment particularly the ISI.
While it could do very little directly in Afghanistan in the presence of the US-led international forces, it did all it could to support Taliban-led militancy that was aimed at destabilising civilian regime of President Hamid Karzai in Kabul. ISI left no opportunity to trouble the Government in Kabul and it never liked India’s role in Afghanistan. India’s developmental aid and establishment of strategic ties between New Delhi and Kabul was deeply resented by Islamabad in general and its military establishment in particular.
Emerging security and political uncertainty in the backdrop of impending presidential election in 2014 possibly has emboldened Pakistani military to take recourse to adventurism and what has facilitated this approach is deep domestic discord in India.
The Congress-led UPA Government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh entered fifth year in office in May this year and country has to elect a new Government in early months of the next year. The political uncertainty has further worsened by scandals and scams. Economic problems like falling rupee value in international markets and decelerating industrial production along with rising prices of essential commodities has further compounded the political situation.
Aggression displayed by Pakistan and China at border results gives birth to jingoism where political parties compete with each other demanding retaliatory measures against so called enemies without making a cost benefit analysis of such an action.
Decision taking capacity of a Government awaiting elections in less than nine months is further constrained by the absence of a consensus on foreign policy issues. Country’s foreign policy has become the worst victim of the erosion of consensus on major foreign policy issues. Two national parties-the Congress and the BJP-have abandoned bipartisan approach on country’s foreign policy which used to be India’s strength.
It began in 2005 during the first UPA Government when the BJP opposed tooth and nail the Indo-US nuclear deal. In subsequent years, every single foreign policy move, whether country’s ties with its neighbours are at stake or with major powers are concerned, has been opposed by the opposition particularly by the principal opposition party-the BJP.
Relations with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and other neighbours have thus come under serious stress and strain as an elected Government in New Delhi is not able to stand to its promises given to friends in the neighbourhood. Land border agreement and Teesta water accord with Bangladesh and bilateral strategic cooperation with Sri Lanka in forms of military training to Sri Lankan forces are few examples of the prevailing chaos in the field of country’s foreign policy.
Statements coming from the opposition that if it came to power decisions of the earlier Government would be rolled back have not helped the country’s cause or for that matter furthered vital national interests. Government’s commitments being no more sacrosanct, which foreign Government would like to do business is a question that is haunting the country’s foreign policy?
If country’s present friends are dismayed with New Delhi’s inability to honour its word then countries harbouring historical animosity are bound to exploit India’s domestic weakness and this seems to happening on country’s two borders. [IFS]

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