Shaurya Sangra
Europe again is in the midst of chaos as Russian troops rally on the Northern and North-Eastern borders of Ukraine. This Russian enforcement is a response to Ukraine’s immediacy to NATO and the European Union in the past few years since Volodymyr Zelensky became the president. Viktor Yanukovych, the former president of Ukraine who had close-knit ties with Moscow, was ousted by the Ukrainian public in 2014. Since then Ukraine had started to get more consolidated with the West which Moscow wasn’t appreciative of.
Historically, Ukraine was part of the erstwhile Soviet Union which disintegrated in 1991. Just like many of the Central Asian Republics, some regions of Ukraine always wanted to stay together with Russia. Moscow has historically functioned by incorporating regions that have an ethnic Russian population in the majority and wants to be a part of the Russian state. We saw this in 2014 when Russian troops annexed Crimea which according to the Russian Government wanted to merge into Russia. After Russia conducted a referendum within the region, the plurality of the citizens voted in favor of Russia while the American press boycotted the referendum expressing that it was fixed. Since then Russia has been governing Crimea while the West still regards Crimea to be a part of Ukraine.
The Donbas region in Eastern Ukraine has a higher Russian ethnic population and has constantly wanted to be an independent region. This region has been in constant combat between Russia and Ukraine over which a 12 point Minsk Protocol was signed but no resolution is on the ground. Russia backs various East Ukrainian separatist forces and supplies them with weapons and arms to resist Ukrainian control. With Russian forces on the frontier, the chances of Russia occupying this separate region are high. Russia has been flexing its muscles for a while now. They are under persistent military preparedness, their naval warships are having exercises in the Black Sea and they have troops right on the border. Russian demands from the West are forthright, Russians demand 3 security guarantees. The first is that NATO does not incorporate more members. The second, not deploying weapons near the Russian borders. The final third is that Ukraine shall be permanently barred from joining NATO.
The western world is still dubious to meet Putin’s demands and has not functioned on them. It finds the directives of Moscow irrational but that is not all. While the United States of America is firmly wanting to proffer strict financial actions against Russia, Europe is not in total approval of it. Europe’s silence can be directly attributed to their Natural Gas and Crude Oil supplies which Russia controls. Russia is liable for 40% of Europe’s gas requirements and supplies it daily. Any financial or diplomatic action against Russia would lead to a cataclysm or stoppage of Gas supplies to Europe during this cold winter season which the European Union cannot afford. The Gas prices are at an all-time high and America cannot satisfy Europe’s tremendous Gas requirements. Due to these waverings, European nations have fired up their coal power plants once again to fulfill their energy requirements violating the Climate Change ordinances in place. Spain is already encountering backlash from environmentalists as due to the energy crisis it was propelled to restart the Los Barrios thermal power plant which is located in the bay of Gibraltar.
Russia can act in 3 major ways, it can invade Ukraine in a full-fledged way but that would lead to human casualties and economic liabilities which it cannot afford. Russia could also just target and invade the specific Donbas region with a higher Russian ethenic population which looks like the way they are proceeding to act. The third and final way Russia could move is with the help of Cyber Warfare and can target specific Ukrainian military zones with its state-of-the-art Cyber divisions.
While the Ukrainian president has called the West to be “Vigilant and firm”, a few of the diplomats have asked India to moderate between the European Union and Russia. India has a historical friendship with Russia which it deeply appreciates but it also is the 3rd highest economic partner of the European Union. India consequently cannot upset a certain group and has settled to stay neutral just like it did during the Crimean Crisis in 2014. Ministry of External Affairs official spokesperson Arindam Bagchi in a very diplomatic vocabulary called for a “peaceful resolution of the situation through sustained diplomatic efforts for long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond.”
Russia has got America where it would have liked it. The German’s aren’t acting enough as a new administration is in place in Germany and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal which is an $11 Billion investment in Gas supply from Russia to Europe is in question. America does not want this distinctive investment and agreement with Russia to go through but at the same time does not offer anything to the European Nations in return. Europe desperately requires the Gas supply and cannot afford the costs to advance further. It ought to reply to Russian demands swiftly to avoid monetary repercussions.
The ball is therefore in America’s court. If America abides the Russian demands, it would reflect in severe backlash toward the White House. Joe Biden has already been regarded as a defenseless president and he has not reacted to that criticism with any formative measure. The Biden administration has already been called in question over its catastrophic handling of the Afghanistan Crisis and would not want its troops on the Ukrainian boundary. Europe is split on the handling of the crisis as its fuel requirements are in question. Consequently, America cannot afford not to act on this predicament. America could help Ukraine economically and militarily with weapons and missiles but eventually, it would require itself to negotiate with the Russians over its demands which currently have been rejected. With immense buildup from the Russians and the impending midterm elections in the USA, times look challenging for the Biden administration.
(The author is pursuing his Higher Secondary at the Jodhamal Public School)
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