Ishan Bhushan
Recently the Government of India released new guidelines permitted considerable relaxations based on the risk profiling of the districts into three different zones as green, orange and red. The generalization of the relaxations nationwide just by beholding the numbers of active covid-19 infected ones is blinkered perspective. The testing ratio of the states or respective districts are very important numbers to keep in mind before implementing such crucial measures. So far India has relied on the nationwide lockdowns as the only viable possibility for the country of 1.3 billion residents to contain the spread of COVID-19. The lockdown has effectively contained the community spread of the disease but one wrong step can backfire triggering devastating consequences.
14th in the tally of COVID-19 cases worldwide, India has reported near about 56,516 total cases until 8th of May, 2020. However, the figures that requires much deliberation are the testing statistics of the country which on above-mentioned date stands at 1,042 tests per million, one of the lowest in the world. Some of the countries having relatively more testing ratio per million are Nepal, Jamaica, Columbia, Vietnam. On 8th of May the average testing of top 13 countries excluding China was 21,617 tests per million whereas India’s testing ratio stands at approximate 5% of the average. The successive nationwide lockdowns have so far efficaciously curtailed the spread of disease but the increasingly pernicious repercussions of the lockdown indicate the urgency to consider alternative measures. The Central Government announced the division of the states into different zones as per their risk profiling primarily based on the number of cases reported in the districts during past weeks. The generalization of the relaxations in the zones only by the perspective of number of cases can result to devastation especially if we consider some of the key insights of the disease. The ICMR report revealing 80% of the positive covid-19 patients being asymptomatic is one of the significant observations which must be well-thought-out. Without the mandatory testing being conducted such significant number of asymptomatic covid-19 positive patients can lead to many misapprehensions. Easing the restriction without taking in consideration the respective testing ratio of the districts may lead to community spread of the disease. Even the contemplation of the such scenario is very dreadful to imagine.
On 8th of May, out of the total positive cases in India, Maharashtra is leading the tally with near about 17,974 cases. Gujrat is second with 7012 cases and Delhi is 3rd with 5980 cases. West Bengal is 10th with 1548 cases, Bihar is 15th with 550 cases and Jammu and Kashmir stands at 12th with 793 cases so far. In Maharashtra only 6 of the 36 districts are in green zone, in Gujrat the number is 5 out of 33 whereas no district of Delhi is either in Green or Orange zone. However due to the lesser number of covid-19 cases in some states relatively a greater number of districts are included in green and orange zone. West Bengal’s 8 districts out of total 23 are included in green zone, Bihar’s has 13 districts in green as well as 20 in orange zone out of total 38 districts. The disregard of the data of the tests conducted while considering the relaxations in the respective states can result in detrimental conclusion. As of 6th of May Maharashtra has tested near about 1563 samples per million, whereas until 7th of May Gujrat has tested near about 1551cases per million, Jammu and Kashmir tested 2799 samples per million. In contrast, two of the most populous states of India, West Bengal and Bihar have conducted only 332 and 244 tests per million until 7th of May, one of the lowest in the country (Figure 2).
The fewer tests being conducted along with the inability of 80% of the potential carriers’ asymptomatic patients of the disease leads uncertainty in articulating the concrete figures. The number of tests conducted by the respective states is one of the decisive aspects to contemplate the phases of lockdown relaxations. The oblivion spread in the lesser tested states can lead to catastrophic consequences. Mandatory random sample testing or probability sampling should be considered in each state before executing measure of relaxations. The imminent repercussion of the half-assessed actions is inconceivable to think. The dire need to critically examine any relaxation measure will reverberate the future of the nation.
(The author is a data journalist)
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