Col. Satish Singh Lalotra
‘We have a saying in Tibet: If a problem can be solved there is no use worrying about it. If it can’t be solved, worrying will do no good.’
-Heinrich Harrer.
The fast changing equation of global world order was never ever in a state of flux as it has been now in the last one decade. Though the semantics of power struggle remain unchanged the types, countries and the leadership pattern have undergone sea change that are now having a relatively shorter shelf life as compared to their former counterparts. This shows more traction and volatility in the all the corners of the world as also shifting of traditional power centers that were characterized by the traditional methods of governance i.e communist or capitalist. Based on their methods of governance were formed the alliances such as the NATO or the Warsaw pact each acting as a protectorate of their group. Though regional pacts in the form of SEATO & CENTO (South East Asian treaty organization & Central treaty organization) too came up in the mid-1950s, they were guided more by the Geo-strategic reasons prevailing in a particular area than as power projection as well as standard bearers of a method of governance.
Egged on by eclipse of Japanese imperialism as also the withdrawal of Anglo -French forces after the end of 2WW, the vacuum left by the near absence of a wave of communism after the breakup of USSR in the early 1990s followed by the slow and steady filling in of this vacuum by the PRC (People’s Republic of China) has skewed the world order in favour of the Asian continent. With diminishing returns obtaining from the Russo-Ukraine war, the sun seems to be casting its last glance on the Russian bear’s capability to unhinge the world order in its favour. Equally the US, true to its colours is now no longer smug in propping up its proxy Ukraine with the war going in the so called ‘Netherworld’ which is now an ill-defined area of activity. But that doesn’t whet the appetite of the Yankee from pulling out a leaf from its old book of machinations.
One such reinvented tool for springing a surprise on its age old adversary the PRC, has been to reactivate the moribund ‘Tibetan issue’ by way of a passing the so called ‘Resolve Tibet act’ ( RTA) by the US congress on June 12 this year. It has been given to understand that this Act is a bold successor to the earlier two Acts preceding it few years back. The US congress as stated above, passed the promoting of a resolution to ‘Tibet -China dispute act’ better known as the ‘Resolve Tibet act’ a bipartisan legislation which now awaits assent from the US president Joe Biden following which it will be ratified into Law. This Act is the third notable piece of legislation that the US has taken regarding Tibet, following the ‘Tibetan policy act’ or TPA (2002), and the Tibetan policy & support act or the TPSA ( 2020).
As if the above developments in the far away continent of America were not enough, a US bipartisan delegation including speaker Nancy Pelosi and house foreign affairs committee chairperson Michael Mac Caul visited Dharamshala in June this year to meet HH Dalai Lama after the US congress passed RTA (Resolve Tibet act). The high mark of the visit was attending the felicitation ceremony by the central Tibetan administration (CTA) on behalf of Tibetans living inside Tibet and in exile at the main temple at Dharamshala.
Let it be known to the readers of this article that the CTA is the highest governing body of the exile-government of Tibet located at Dharamshala. This above act of US Congressional delegation on the soil of India was one of the most momentous in recent years signaling a tectonic shift in the way US now wants to engage its bête noire( China) in the Asia- pacific region as also a sort of re-engineering of its ties with India. With the Modi government firmly in the saddle for a third term, the din on the LAC in the light of 2020 clash at Galwan with the PLA still branded fresh in the psyche of the country, the gargantuan appetite of the Chinese dragon in its relentless west ward push of the LAC, the elections for a new Dalai Lama around the corner, India and the US doing a tango on the Taiwan issue, and continuous pin pricking of Chinese authorities on Arunachal Pradesh are some of the moves that have to be deciphered very minutely on the chess board of Sino-Indian relations. When juxtaposed with these twin recent moves of US congress of passing the RTA and the visit to Dharamshala a layer of Geo-strategic uncertainty has been suddenly ushered in the Indian sub-continent with regards to its northern neighbour China that was hitherto confined only to the above stated thorny issues. It would require best of statecraft and statesmanship on the part of Indian leadership to navigate the choppy waters of Sino-US relations that are now set on the Indian soil having direct repercussions on the national sovereignty and yet able to draw its pound of flesh in retention of our core principles while engaging with its neighbourhood.
But before I dwell on points that impinge upon us a nation to safeguard our sovereignty with regard to the latest developments, there are few posers from my side which a discerning reader may like to ruminate and make sense of the same in the fast changing events ushered in by US congressional team’s visit to Dharamshala–
* Why has the USA suddenly timed the introduction of ‘Resolve Tibet act’ in its congressional circles after a gap of so many years of its passing the two earlier acts viz TPA (2002) & TPSA (2020)?
* What is so different in the just introduced RTA from those preceding it in the form of TPA & TPSA?
* A careful reading of the trio acts reveals that the main provisions of these acts are basically a corollary of each other, except for TPA earlier stressing Tibet as integral part of China which the present RTA doesn’t say in so many words and being more anti-China in its stand thus authorizing funds to counter Chinese disinformation campaigns about its history, people, institutions, culture including that of the Dalai Lama.
* The RTA has gone a few notches higher in its vitriolic utterances against China whereupon it enjoins China to grant the Tibetans the right to self-determination, human rights, and makes a note of China’s duty as a signatory of two covenants -the international covenant on civil and political rights and the international covenant on economic, social and cultural rights.
* The biggest difference that has been seen in the RTA and its predecessor the TPA, is that this present act has amended the TPA version to enjoin China define the exact geographical areas part of the Tibetan autonomous region under their occupation. This is a hardening of US stand as also nullifying its earlier position taken in the TPA regarding Chinese occupation of TAR.
* If one goes by the latest RTA, then the act of asking China to demarcate or define the exact geographical parts of the TAR after more than seven decades of first Chinese intrusion in Tibet in 1950 amounts to a temporary stay or occupation by the Chinese as also their lack of sincerity of amalgamation of Tibet into the mainland China. This is what USA wants to prove in its present form of RTA.
* Why has the US congressional delegation chosen India’s land ( Dharamshala) to do its bidding despite knowing the fact that the relations between the two Asian giants are at their lowest ebb post Galwan clash of 2020?
* What is India going to gain in this high stakes game being played between the two super powers?
* Is the present Modi Govt doing a shadow boxing with China wearing US gloves despite knowing the skewed ratio of armed forces between the two countries?
* Isn’t the Modi government in its third term following the same path that was once followed by Nehru in his final years of governance of misreading the exact intentions of the yellow man in 1962 only to receive a Luke warm response from his Non -aligned partners and the US in the UN when the balloon went up?
* Taking a cue from the pro-active US policy towards containment of China , why hasn’t India made use of such a large Tibetan diaspora including the SFF /Special frontier force to nail China in its own game in the TAR?
* With US going strong on its latest Tibet policy, what are India’s options to exercise in relation to China , more so being on loggerheads with the communist giant since the Galwan clash of 2020 as also its power projection in the south Asian region?
The above posers cum facts enjoin India to do a recalibration of its foreign policy from which emanates its defence policy vis -a-vis China that commands Tibet. India’s Tibet policy post-independence was spelt out in a note by K.M Panikker at that time in between his ambassadorial assignments in Nanjing and Bejing. Panikker was dismissive about views held by some in the foreign office that Tibet be maintained as a buffer state, saying that it was completely unrealistic. As per him India had long back upheld the ‘Chinese suzerainty’ as well as the Anglo-American diplomatists stance to make this acceptance of Chinese suzerainty contingent upon the assurance that the Tibetan autonomy will be guaranteed to us was never accepted by China even in the days of her extreme weakness. This long held Chinese position of Suzerainty over Tibet is now negated by the just passed RTA of USA. Since India shifted its position from the ‘Chinese Suzerainty’ over Tibet to it being part of China under late PM Vajpayee’s regime in 2003 ( a major shift in India’s foreign policy) in an attempt to hasten the border dispute resolution what has the country achieved by its diplomatese ? Has China responded in equal measure? Except for issuing routine demarches on Arunachal Pradesh and salami slicing in a constant westward direction what has been the Chinese wont? What will happen if India in a quid pro quo reverses from its stated position (Tibet being part of China) to that of Chinese Suzerainty? The biggest chasm that seem to appear between the two Asian giants is the absence of dialogue since 2020 signaling that the old bilateral framework has irretrievably broken down due to one sided ‘Chinese Chicanery’ in eastern Ladakh. This ‘Chinese Chicanery’ has to be countervailed by an equal and demonstrable amount of goodwill and remedial actions on ground by PRC for both nations to move forward.
The fact that China expert Mr Vikram Misri has just been appointed as the next foreign secretary of India is no brainer that the biggest foreign policy challenge facing the country lies just across the Mac Mohan line. Though commendable work is being done in ways to augment our presence on the LAC, is deterrence in itself an adequate policy response? At the height of cold war, the two superpowers never halted their political dialogue with mechanisms built around to prevent a nuclear conflagration. Due to Chinese obduracy 20 rounds of military dialogues since the Galwan clash have resulted into a status -quo. Military dialogue has its limitations, since without a political dialogue a new ground breaking in such a case can’t be achieved. This is where the role of the so called China expert, the new foreign secy Mr Misri will come into play as also does Mr Modi command that much of heft to break this logjam heading a coalition Govt? He has to be the mainstay for forging the Sino-Indian ties that lie in the labyrinthine of frozen frontiers of Ladakh. Or will he piggy back on US assurances to do that? Be that as it may, India as part of its containment policy of China has gone in for a plethora of actions which bespeaks of its focused attention on the dragon state. India has been now actively involved with Taiwan in multifarious trade and economic pacts with whom China cannot see an eye to eye, it amounts to sending direct signals to PRC of India’s multi-alignments with likeminded nations that may have underpinnings for its future Sino-Indian relations. The only way to further this idea is to bring in the littoral as well as surrounding nations around China under India’s influence. With US now too opening up a hitherto moribund topic of ‘Free Tibet’, in the form of RTA the double whammy on China with India doing a tango with the Americans could be the new normal in the already frozen relations between the two Asian giants. As the famous 2WW Austro -German mountaineer Heinrich Harrer and a fast friend of HH Dalai Lama uttered— ‘There is a saying in Tibet-If a problem can be solved there is no use worrying about it, If it can’t be solved worrying will do no good’.
(The writer is a retired army officer)
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