Col J P Singh, Retd
There are not easy times for Nepal ever. Having bravely fought terrible troubles including the last April’s devastating earthquake and its after effects, the country walked into another trouble following the violent political unrest over the most sought after new constitution.
Nepal is a landlocked country which relies heavily on subsidized food, supplies and fuel from India. Its geography alternates between the fertile, densely populated Terai region on Indian border, hilly uplands and the rugged imposing terrain of the Himalayan ranges. Kathmandu, its capital, is a valley. Nepal has distinct ethnic population centers that are poorly connected, making accessibility complex and expensive. Bloody Maoist insurgency of late nineties, impeded infrastructure development. Hence the land-locked country remains heavily dependent on India. Last year’s devastating earthquake blocked many of the country’s land routes to China thereby further increasing Nepal’s economic dependence on India.
Foundation of India’s relationship with Nepal is based on its ties with predominantly Terai settled Hindu Madhesi groups. Former Hindu monarchy, which was ousted in 2001 after a prolonged Maoists led bloody agitation enjoyed Indian support. Madhesi are 51 to 52 % of the country’s population. But they occupy 17 % geographical area only. Traditionally, they have banked upon India to protect their interests.
On 20th Sept 2015, Nepal announced adoption of new constitution after 8 long years of discard. This was the 7th constitution adopted by Nepal in last 67 years and democratically the first. Great celebrations took place in Kathmandu because it paved the way for establishment of a political process in the country. Ironically the opposite of that happened throughout Terai region. The announcement led to wide spread protests which blocked of all entry points at Indo-Nepal border because it was perceived to be anti majority Madhesi community. It has failed to satisfy the Madhesi and Tharus who together constitute 70 % of Terai population and who think formation of seven federal states is grossly unfair where only eight districts of Terai have been made two federal states and remaining 14 districts have been merged with hilly districts with the sole purpose of converting the local majority into minority. Certain other features of the new constitution are worth its mention. New constitution provides for 165 member Parliament. But the constituencies have been demarcated in a manner that the people of hilly regions get 100 seats and the people of Terai get 65 which means that Terai region having more than half of the country’s population gets lesser representation in the Parliament. It is similar to the demarcation done in J&K after independence whereby Kashmir valley with lesser population and much lesser geographical area was disproportionately given more seats as a result Jammu gets lesser representation in the State Assembly despite more population and much bigger geographical area. Current political glitches in the govt formation and regional tensions are in many ways related to such lopsided delimitation of constituencies. Moreover making Nepal a secular country from a Hindu Kingdom angered Hindu conservatives who argue that the religion of more than 80 % of the population should be enshrined in the constitution. It is also alleged to be gender discriminatory because new constitution makes it difficult for women to pass on citizenship to their children as compared to men e,g a local women married to a Nepal born men of foreigner mother or father and vice-versa can’t pass on citizenship to their siblings. Children born in Nepal of such parentage will not be eligible for leadership positions of prime minister, president and vice president. Madhesi feel that the constitution upholds the status quo of the ruling elite.Taking it with a pinch of salt, India, otherwise mute spectator till then, expressed displeasure. New Delhi reportedly asked Nepal to promptly carry out seven amendments to the constitution to address Madhesi concerns. These amendments were officially conveyed to Nepalese leadership as published by Indian Express. Since the terrible 1996 civil war in Nepal, New Delhi sought to keep Nepalese instability from spilling across the border without its direct intervention. New Delhi was worried that Nepali’s violence may spill over to India. But now, with not very friendly govt formally in place in Kathmandu, India moved decisively to ensure that the Himalayan state is brought firmly under influence rather than let it slip into China’s lap. This put Nepal under tremendous pressure and mood within Nepal turned strongly anti-Indian.
Nepalese, especially the minority Newal, who ruled the interior until the conquests of the Indian-origin Gurkha & Rana dynasties beginning 17th century, do not view the Madhesi as Nepalese and resist their attempts to dominate the political system. Indian pressure asking Nepal to rectify the constitution has not been taken well by the Hilly leadership as well as a result the bi-lateral ties have touched the rock bottom.
Under pressure from New Delhi and Madhesi agitation, two amendments to the constitution have been made. They are (i) proportional representation has been given to the people of Indian origin and (ii) seat allocation in the Parliament on the basis of population has also been accepted. But Madhesis have rejected the amendment calling it incomplete as it does not address their main demand of redrawing boundaries of Federal States. Hence the trouble continues.
Indian indulgence at this point is also worth a mention. New Delhi’s main concern is Nepal’s tacit support to Maoist rebels. India accuses China of arming and supporting them. Nepal’s proximity to Northeastern India has made it a convenient refuge and training & arming ground for Maoist / Naxal rebels that have long carried out armed insurgency hindering development in major part of India. Similar to its current cooperation with Bangladesh, New Delhi wants a strong foothold in Nepal to help contain its own problems with militants. Militancy is likely to resurface in Nepal and spill over to India if the Maoist and communist factions react to India’s strong-arm tactics in support of Madhesi agitation. New Delhi is under sharp criticism of trying to shape Nepalese politics through economic pressure whereas New Delhi says it is Madhesi agitation which is blocking the Northward movement of supply trucks. It has repeatedly appealed Kathmandu to address Madhesi demands to allow supplies to reach mountainous areas especially hard hit by the recent earthquake. According to New Delhi, the only way to end the protests, and thus restart the flow of goods, is to concede to Madhesi demands for constitutional changes.
Delhi’s involvement in Madhesi issue and asking Nepal to carry out seven amendments in its constitution, soon after its promulgation, no doubt, amounts to dictating terms. But there is a strong reason for that indulgence. Nepal is becoming difficult to manage, particularly because of China. Despite its limited infrastructural connection to Nepal, China has been supporting competing political factions in Nepal and wants to curb Indian influence. As a friendly neighbor, it is certainly not unreasonable for India to put across its concerns which are threatening Indian security and impacting relations. India does respect the will of the people and the democratic process which has gone into adopting the new constitution and expects Nepal to respect the will of its majority (Madhesi) community. India can’t ditch largely Hindu Madhesi protesters in Southern Nepal. To scum to Madhesi political demands can push Nepal back into political chaos because the amended constitution probably will further trigger the kind of trouble (civil war) it was designed to end. Hence a political challenge for both.
Madhesi agitation has been called off and economic blockade lifted following death of former premier. This has been hailed in both the countries. Sh. Sushil Koirala, President of Nepali Congress and former Prime Minister of Nepal died 9th February 2016. He was the prime minister when the new constitution was promulgated. He and his party Nepali Congress as well all other Koirala premiers had been very friendly to India. Sushil Koirala was the strongest bond between India and Nepal. His passing away is great setback to Indo-Nepali friendship. Presence of high level ‘all party Indian delegation’ led by Sushma Swaraj in his cremation speaks of respect he commands in Indian political class. This augurs well for the reversal of strained relations. The forthcoming visit of Nepali Prime Minister Sh. KP Sharma Oli to India, who is also the Chairman of ruling CPN-UML, though crucial, favours restoration of mutual trust and age old friendship. Coming months will be very crucial for the leadership of both countries. I am hopeful of restoration of historical friendship soon. If nothing happens outright, final hope still lies in the persistent friendship at the grass root level nurtured by Nepali leaders like Sushil Koirala and Indian leaders like Chander Shekhar.
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