By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri
(Secy Gen, Assn for Democratic Socialism)
Donald Trump becomes the 47th President of United States after the historical elections on the 6thof this month. In a sense, the results were unprecedented and unexpected. In the history of American politics, only once a President has bounced back to office after a gap of four years. It was Grover Cleveland who was the 22nd President in 1884 and then became 24th President in 1892. That was 132 years ago. On 6th of November, Donald Trump repeated the historic feat. Unexpected because all pollsters had predicted a tight election giving Trump no clear chance of victory. Kamala Harris was leading in the opinion polls. Donald Trump on it all, the presidency as well as majority in both Houses of the Congress.
Since 6th of November, a lot of interpretations of the elections and pontificating on Trump’s second term and its implications for the world politics have appeared in the media and government circles. Given that, America, arguably, is the only superpower with the largest economy and military and its inclination to global policing, the impact of Trump’s presidency will be felt across the world. What is more, Donald Trump’s personality, consisting of clarity, decisiveness and unpredictability, makes analyses and predictions of his politics quite interesting.
Before we refer to his second term and its implications for India, a word is in order about why he had a landslide victory and how does the world react to it. His relationship with India flows from his world view. To my mind, as many observers and experts would have multiple points of view, there are four main reasons for his victory. Trump made it his personal fight not that of the Republican Party. In the current political culture of charisma and personality, people responded to a strong and decisive leader.Never mind, he arrogated the party to himself. Second, Kamala Harris could not decouple herself from the controversial legacy of Joe Biden.
Worse, she endorsed all his policies including the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, the economy and the border. Third, her campaign claimed that the inflation was lower under Biden than before. Inflation is cumulative. That is why the Americans feeling the pinch in the gas stations and grocery stores were not convinced. Fourth, Democrats’ lack of focus on the immigration and excessive stress on transgender etc. did not persuade the voters; the economy was uppermost in their mind.
On the possible implications on the world, most likely both the wars will be brought to an end, one way or the other. The war in Ukraine will certainly end sooner. Donald Trump, globally regarded as a transactional leader, will not finance a war that causes devastation and cripples economies. Ending the Ukraine war was also a manifesto promise made by Trump. He is known to have a talking relationship with Russian President Putin as well as Zelensky. There is also a possibility that he may encourage Modi to give him a hand in settling the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. If Russia is co-opted back into Western bloc and China is increasingly isolated, it is good news for India.
On China, Trump will revive the trade war. He has indicated a staggering 60% tariff on Chinese products. From the media reports, his choice of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Michael Waltz as the National Security Advisor indicates combative stance towards China. Both the Congressmen have been known for their hawkish views on China, which they consider a threat to US economic and military might. That is good news for India.
Trump’s position on European Union, NATO, United Nations, East Asia – Japan, Korea and issues like climate change etc. are known from his previous term. But one should not presume that there will be no change or surprises as quite a few Indian analysts suggest. Trump this time will not be worried about his re-election like he was in 2016-2020. What is more, he may want to leave a credible and memorable legacy.In his victory speech, he invoked divine power in saving him from two assassination attempts. He thought God had a purpose in keeping him alive. So, it is unwise to rule out Trump springing surprises. It is truism that people change and evolve in response to their personal and public experiences.
On India, will Trump be doing business only as he would with any other country? That is the predominant view so far. But, politics consists of concatenated complexity. India is the largest market, next to China. If trade and investment are divested away from China, the next destination has to be India. Other countries like Singapore and Vietnam cannot absorb the investment from the world. An alternative supply chain, a manufacturing hub replacing China is the need of the hour. Despite mixed perceptions about India’s market, there is no other substitute.
In countering China in strategic terms, the Quad has to have more teeth. It was conceived and constructed as a security alliance keeping in mind the possible threat from China to the region. In order to balance BRICS and Quad, India downplays the security dimension of Quad, stressing more on developmental and environmental aspects, at least in public utterances. Trump will insist on greater clarity of Quad’s objectives and nudge India to reckon with the reality of Chinese belligerence and reconcile to an America-led security alliance.
The so-called chemistry between leaders, a euphemism for warmth and affinity in human relationship, matters in bilateral diplomacy. Trump-Modi bonhomie will be a clincher in India-America bilateralism. Likewise, Trump and Trudeau antipathy will dump the latter in the next elections or otherwise. That is again good news for India as Trudeau has been spewing venom against New Delhi. India and Canada have had a solid relationship. One individual, the Prime Minister Trudeau, single-handedly, derailed the India-Canada ties.
Trump has stood solidly by India. His foreign office openly called out China on the border dispute and clashes in Galwan. His Foreign Secretary in the first term, Anthony Bliken travelled across India-Pacific warning the leadership of the danger of ignoring Chinese threat, both in economic and military terms. The major challenge India faces today is building its economy, to be the third largest sooner than later and catching up with China. To meet this challenge, India needs the West, of course, including Russia, for technology, investment, market, security etc. All these will come mainly from the United States, the European Union, Russia, Japan and Korea.
Unarguably, India has to be nice to each country in the world, to leverage its rich civilisational legacy and current strengths of democracy, demography and diversity. While doing so, it needs friends and partners. New Delhi cannot be all over the place in choosing close and critical partners. I have consistently maintained that strategic autonomy and multilateralism are slogans not viable strategies. Trump is a test case for India to embrace a clearer strategy in its emergence as a world power.—INFA
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