Brij Nath Betab
Having won his battle against the impeachment, U S President Donald Trump shall now put all his vigor to win the Presidential elections in United States of America. The elections are just ten months away and as the impeachment proceedings of about two months duration and their end results show, his fellow Republicans stand behind him. President Trump is to seek a second term .Political Pundits have it that he is going to stay at the White House for another four years as Trump Administration has many accomplishments for manifestation through the campaign. Thus Trump’s Indian friend Prime Minister Narinder Modi may have made a prophesy by declaring during his last visit to US, ‘ Ab ki baar trump Sarkar”. It is with this background that a relaxed Trump shall be visiting India during the current month and reports suggest that a trade deal will be signed. That shall be a mile stone in furthering the ties between the two nations. The deal took so much of time to materialize demonstrates India’s negotiating power.
President Trump has tactfully dealt with contagious issues relating to North Korea, China, Mexico and Iran and his Middle East Plan ‘for peace, prosperity and better future'(despite Palestinians swift no ) are some triumphs of Trump that the incumbent President should take pride in during electioneering. However ‘Re-integration’ of Taliban in Afghanistan and return of at least some of around 13 thousand troops from the war torn country have been at the top in his priority list. It was this mission that made him to travel to Afghanistan for a’ thanks giving to troops’. President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan later said he has ‘no problem with the talks’ (of US with Taliban).
Well that should have been fine. But the problem or should we say the solution is Pakistan. It is Pakistan who ‘has to deliver Taliban to the negotiating table’. She has to ‘rein in terrorist groups roaming freely in that country’. Taliban has to agree to scale down the offensive that America says is a condition for success of the negotiations. It is here that President Trump is keeping Pakistani Prime Minister in good humor. He has not only offered restoration and enhancement of scuttled aid but also tried to recompense by calling him ‘a good friend’.
Trump, during his first Presidential Election campaign, is reported to have said ‘stop aid to those countries who hate America’. But this time he sent his Principal deputy assistant secretary of state for south and central Asia Alice Wells to offer the kitty to Pakistan in lieu of their help in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s economy is in a very bad shape. Pakistani’s are at the verge of starvation as wheat is not available. Sugar, edible oil, vegetable and essential commodities prices are skyrocketing. The country owes billions of dollars to her donors and the trembling economy can survive only if donors offer more aid and assistance.
Alice went to Islamabad and criticizing China- Pakistan Economic Corridor, said ‘Pakistan’s debt burden was increasing due to China financing’. This was a clandestine message that America could offer a better deal if Pakistan divorces China.
Getting pulverized between America and China is the destiny that Pakistan has chosen for herself. Trump may have called Imran Khan a friend after meeting him at Davos, but for America Pakistan is a friend in need not a friend in deed. Pakistan’s proximity is the necessitude of circumstances prevailing in Afghanistan. Same is her case with China. China needs land for access to Gwadar port; hence an ally.
Alice Well’s speech at a ‘think tank’ gathering did not go well with China and China lobbyists in Pakistan and Pakistan had to issue a rejoinder; China issued a rebuttal. However many observers in Pakistan came out openly in favor of America and said, ‘How does it matter who gives us aid as long as we offer our country for rent’.
Pakistan swings back and forth between America and China as a pendulum. In 2018 when America ‘ blamed Pakistan for its failure in war against terror in Afghanistan’, and was contemplating withholding aid, the official spokesperson of Pakistan Foreign office had angrily stated ” we do not need any financial assistance from united states”. It was a veiled threat that Pakistan has China to bank upon.
Now that Trump wants Pakistan to ‘Extricate’ US from war in Afghanistan, Alice came with the offer saying ‘China would not guarantee Pakistan a more prosperous future’. This means the aid would be restored and even enhanced when Pakistan succeeds in making Taliban sit on the table and negotiate directly with US. Trump wants to keep his promise to his fellow citizens that their loving ones would return home soon. For Americans this is a very emotional issue and Trump does not want to lose on that promise.
Pakistan on her part would be interested to grab from both the donors and with both the hands. Simply because it’s economy is at the verge of a collapse. A U N report on ‘World economic situation and prospects expects Pakistan’s economy to grow slower than earlier projection of 2.1 per cent. International Monitory Fund has forecast almost a 100 percent increase in inflation. Pakistan’s own local ‘Think Tank’, Islamabad Policy Institute, in its latest report has projected alarming future for Pakistan. Not only with regard to its deteriorating economy but also about its ‘External environment’, that is expected to remain challenging to the extent that it ‘will have serious implications for the economy’.
This Islamabad based civil society group includes retired Lt. Gen Asif Yasin Malik, hence it is easy to comprehend how and why the report follows Pakistan army’s line and says that ‘chances of limited conflict with India will remain high’. The report adds that the ‘biggest challenge in 2020 for Pakistan will be to manage the fallout from US-India nexus’. It is here that Pakistan has always faulted, and landed in crisis. Instead of talking of peace they talk about conflict. On the one hand these so called intellectuals believe that Pakistan would need aid from donors to sustain its murky economic situation and on the other hand they express their heartburn by terming growing India US friendship as a nexus. They forget how shabby their deals with China are and how they pledge their troth to America.
Pakistanis should have been elated by the seemingly bonhomie between their Prime Minister and the US president as witnessed by Television Cameras at Davos, but, everyone realizes that President Trump’s hand of friendship is not without a rider. He needs Pakistan in Afghanistan and Pakistan is under the influence of China. After Davos meeting a big chunk of Pakistani society has started raising questions and expressing doubt about the real motive of Imran Khan’s gestures towards both China and America.
With regard to US, Imran Khan may have made television channels believe that he has impressed Trump and has done friendship with him, but back home he has come under severe attack for ‘ stating clearly that Afghanistan is his top priority’. This is certainly going to Jeopardize Imran Khan’s efforts to lend a helping hand to Trump. Pakistan’s dooms day would come when Afghan talks do not end up in some sort of conciliation. A failure would mean Imran Khan will lose the proverbial bird in his hand along with the two in the bushes. Islamabad based policy group also expressed apprehensions that, the ‘peace Process in Afghanistan would in near future continue to be marred by uncertainty’. Pakistan’s support to Palestine and Malaysia in rejecting Trump’s Middle East Plan will make certain this uncertainty. The allegations of security agencies of two countries playing a double game in Afghanistan are also creating mistrust. Imran Khan’s leaning towards Malaysia against Saudi interests may also not be in the interests of US Pakistan relations One would infer that the Trump administration is wary of Pakistan Army’s puppet Imran Khan’s capacity. It is here that U S President is not obliging them by paying a visit in the near future. Trump administration seems to be testing Imran Khan’s skills and sincerity and find out if the country that earlier ‘befooled America’ could now be ‘A sure friend in difficulty’, to put it in the words of Quintus Ennius.
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