By Anjan Roy
From the early indications so far available, the New Year—2025— is all set to be tumultuous for all nations. India must be wary and take every possible caution and steps to navigate the forthcoming year of uncertainty. The USA, with its sheer size and weight in the world economy and power equation, matters for all. The president-elect’s esoteric doctrines, which can be pieced together from his constant verbal output, is about to introduce a new world order and system.
The Trump Doctrine does not have any respect for the rule of law in international affairs and it is another version of the Putin Doctrine, which wants the Russian Imperial Order and the Xi Jinping Doctrine of China’s supremacy and a Chinese shaped world.
With these three competing Doctrinal views of the world, one cannot but be certain or complete disorder and the disdain for the values of others, as far as they exist by sufferance.
Donald Trump has aired his latest views about the new American work-order in which the Panama Canal —a key waterway for international trade— should be brought back under the control of America.
Along with Canada as the US’ 51st state, and across the ocean, Greenland, which Donald Trump thinks should essentially belong to the USA for the sake of world peace and survival of the free world.
Such blatant expansionism of the reputedly strongest power on earth almost legitimises the expansionism of others who have already heaped strife and suffering across the world. As if it was the best gift from the next American president, Vladimir Putin, has launched a blitzkrieg in Europe to drum up support for his move to snatch away vast parts of Ukraine as Russian territory in a formalised agreement to conclude his frustrated Ukraine invasion of the last two years.
Vladimir Putin has already set in motion a public disinformation campaign and efforts have been set in motion to destabilise some more of the established governments in Europe. Putin’s aides have said that there are deep rifts among European countries in providing support to Ukraine in its struggle to retain its sovereign existence.
There is apparently rising support for dumping Ukraine and supporting Russia in the on-going war, according to the Russian ambassador in Berlin. German political parties are all in support of Russia, according to him.
Blatant aggression, like in the nineteenth century, is the talk of the town. Even little Bangladesh is talking of snatching away at least three states of the Indian Union to form a “Greater Bangladesh”— countries are sleepwalking on precipitous edges.
This is the culmination of the talks of the big brothers. American expansionism, and irresponsible talk of disregarding the established principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, would lead to these being dumped. India should evermore be cautious about strife in its neighbourhood as well as elsewhere.
Of all these expansionism of the “Make America Great Again” —the so-called “MAGA” action plan—of Trump, the usurpation of the Panama Canal sounds fearsomely serious. Trump has said that the Canal —which once was under the control of America— was vital for America’s trade interests and economic stakes and needed to be under US control.
The President-elect has announced that the United States must take over the Panama Canal, which connects the Pacific with the Atlantic Ocean and provides a key channel for US cargo movements from coast to coast.
In the absence of the canal passage, US cargo ships would be required to “horn the cape” that passes through the gap at the end of South America and Antarctica. That would add thousands of miles of navigation from North America down the coast of South American countries and then turn around at Cape Horn, one of the most stormiest seas in the world where even experienced sea dogs fear to tread.
Needless to say, Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino did not appreciate the wonderful idea and said that every metre of the Canal belongs to Panama and the Canal was not negotiable. That did not seem to deter Donald Trump and he announced to a group of young American conservatives that President Carter’s signing away control over the Canal to the Panamian government was a mistake.
Donald Trump has continued to rally against the Panamians, saying the country was charging the Americans high fees for using the canal. Trump’s claim is on the ground that the Panama Canal was built by the Americans spending heaps of American dollars.
The history of that tangled relations between the two countries is not strewn with goodwill and love of peace. America had organised and funded a political movement which resulted in the creation of Panama as a separate nation, split apart from Colombia.
After the independence of Panama from Colombia, the USA built the Canal and thereafter was under the control of the Americans from the early years of the last century to 1964 when protests broke out against the Americans, which led to joint control until in 1999 when the ownership and operations were handed over to the Panama.
Now, Donald Trump wants to take that back, in the interests of America trade and business as well as for strategic reasons. Donald Trump is now accusing the canal authorities of being subservient to the Chinese and under the indirect control of the Chinese, ground enough for Trump to resort American suzerainty over the canal.
But more intriguing is the Trump claim of ownership of Greenland halfway across the world. Donald Trump has said that Greenland is crucial for American survival and strategic interests. He would like to buy it up as America bought Alaska from the Russians in the nineteenth century.
Greenland is not amused and has flatly turned down any commercial negotiations over the sale price of Greenland! The Greenlanders are saying Greenland is a sovereign country and would remain so. But maybe with a little luck that can also be upset.
If these things are conceivable, China sweeping up Taiwan or coming down to south Tibet in Arunachal Pradesh cannot be far behind. If Spring comes, can Winter be far behind, can it? (IPA Service)
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