Harsha Kakar
Trump’s tweets at 4 AM on New Years day, aimed directly at Pakistan has opened a can of worms. Pak’s political and military leaders as also diplomats at the UN and Washington have been crying foul, but to no avail. China, as usual, has come running to wipe Pak’s tears, while India and Afghanistan, who have faced the brunt of Pak sponsored terrorism have smiled stating that finally the US has opened its eyes and seen how they have been fooled by Pak.
Pak has been claiming, backed by China, that it has suffered the maximum battling terrorists, sacrificing thousands of lives of innocents. What Pakistan has failed to state is that it is battling terrorists that it itself created, through its own follies, and they are not state sponsored. The Baluch freedom struggle, news of which rarely trickles down, targets only security forces and is the result of Pak’s flawed and oppressive policies in the region. It would not end, unless Pak changes its policies of oppression and force and accepts the genuine demands of the Baluch.
The other major terror group targeting Pak as a nation is the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has its hideouts along the Pak-Afghan border. A reading of its history would indicate that the group was created by the actions of the Pak Government and army, under the dictatorship of Musharraf. The TTP was born post the army’s siege and subsequent assault on the Lal Masjid, which led to over a hundred dead. The attack took place in July 2007.
Most of the students of the madrassahs attached to the Lal Masjid, who fought the army in 2007, came from the FATA territories and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) where the ISI was actively supporting the Taliban. It was from the Lal Masjid that the ISI recruited militants for Kashmir and Afghanistan. Its location was a stone’s throw from the ISI HQs and close to the high security red zone in Islamabad. Post the attack, most returned and re-joined the militancy. In Dec the same year, forty militant leaders met in South Waziristan and decided to form a united front under the banner of the TTP, to avenge the Lal Masjid attack by targeting the Pak state.
By 2008, the TTP was almost completely in control of the seven FATA agencies and had expanded their influence to include a large part of KP. Their influence had reached close to Islamabad. Subsequent raids on army HQs and ISI offices located in highsecurity zones, indicated the increasing power of the group. It is this home grown and state created group whom the Pak army battles, not a state sponsored Taliban or Haqqani network or any group targeting India.
Pak seeks to avoid informing the world is that it is battling freedom struggles and insurgencies created inhouse, whereas Afghanistan and India face insurgencies sponsored and supported by the Pak deep state. Trump is therefore correct when he has threatened Pak for its actions. China’s claims of supporting Pak is only to secure its own investments, despite knowing Pak is on the wrong foot. It would readily jump in to replace the US in Pak, ensuring Pak would be beholden to it.
Pak created and strengthened the Taliban and Haqqani network only to ensure that Afghanistan remains as its strategic depth. It is aware that any civilian government in the country, would prefer India to Pak, hence only these groups could keep India away. However, it miscalculated.
The US, since its induction in Afghanistan has been attempting to subdue the Taliban, which it never could, solely due to Pak support. Obama, almost gave up and planned a withdrawal of troops. The US security agencies realized that with Iraq and Syria being rid of ISIS, it is possible that they would relocate to Afghanistan and recreate a threat for the west and the US. Thus, it was forced to return and seek to establish order. Logically, its priorities would be to battle the Taliban, bring it on the negotiating table from a position of strength and then handle the ISIS, with the support of the Afghan army.
For the Taliban and Haqqani network to come to the negotiating table, their present leadership needs to be eliminated, which is secure in bases in Pak. Thus, Pak must act and either arrest or eliminate or push them out from their secure bases. For Pak, this is an almost impossible task, which they have avoided for years. The reasons are many.
Firstly, there are many within the deep state which have close links with the Taliban, having either fought alongside them or interacted with them. Secondly, the Taliban obtains its funds through the drug trade, which either moves through Karachi or along the land border through India. In either case, the military establishment of Pak would be involved. Hence, targeting the Taliban would be akin to hurting themselves.
Thirdly, is the integral fear of the Taliban and Haqqani network turning inwards if even threatened with eviction. This, alongside the TTP would become a new menace for the army to handle. Finally, it cannot handover any high-ranking prisoners from these groups to the US, which the US continues to demand, as it could open a Pandora’s box of Pak army’s direct involvement.
Thus, Pak would continue to fret and scream, but would never act. It tried to continue playing the game, but this time their bluff was called. For the US, it implies acting with care, as their dependence on the Karachi port continues, unless they establish an alternate routing. This is the card Pak would continue to exploit. However, if the US seeks to end the Afghan war and withdraw in a position of strength it should pressurize Pak to act.
While it is pushing Pak to act only against terror groups operating against Afghanistan, it needs to realize that unless Pak changes its complete policies of supporting terror, its actions would only be temporary to buy time. If Pak is to be forced, then a series of measures, ranging from diplomatic, economic and military, including enhancing drone strikes and embarrassing the army must be adopted. It is only by proving to the nation, that the army cannot ensure national security, would it be forced to act. Time for words are over, now is time for action. Delaying action would be playing into Pak hands again.
(The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)
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