Trumpian Tremors

Brig. Anil Gupta
More than a year plus long process to elect the 45th President of the United States (POTUS) came to a dramatic end on 9/11. 9 September 2011(popularly known as 9/11) is synonymous with the date that brought radical changes in the post- cold war US, while another 9/11 (9 November 2016) may well turn out to be a watershed date of American politics. The campaign this time was bitter and at times personal without debating major policy issues. While the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was a seasoned politician with huge experience in government, the Republican candidate and President-elect Trump is a first time politician, new to Washington and with zero experience in the Government. Mired in one controversy or the other throughout his campaign, Trump had been declared a loser by the media and chair-borne analysts much before the American people exercised their franchise. Back home in India one found a lot of similarities in the Indian Election Campaign 2014 and the US Campaign 2016. Both the campaigns were expected to lead to a very tight finish electoral battle but in the end turned out to be much beyond the predictions of the Pundits.At the end of both the ‘outsiders’ emerged victorious. Will the similarities end here itself or will continue into the tenure of President-elect Trump, only the time will tell.
Going by the statements made by the President-elect, the entire world is waiting anxiously for Trump to assume office so that reality can be chaffed from rhetoric. Like the “Jumlas” used in Indian election, the world community hopes that Trump did not mean many things he said during his aggressive right-extreme campaign. The exalted chair of POTUS may calm down otherwise aggressive and xenophobic Trump is the wish of many not only in America but world-wide.  Samuel Huntington in his book “Who Are We?” has elaborated upon the issue of American identity crisis. Millions of Americans today are asking themselves this question and trying to look for an answer. Trump stuck the chord with these Americans and endeared him to them with the slogan of “America First.” They found in Trump a ray of hope and the silent majority backed him wholeheartedly. Trumpian slogans like ‘Make America Great Again’ and ‘Take back your country’ mobilised the Americans who were feeling left out and let down by Obama’s pro-immigrant policies. Now that he has been given the mandate proves that identity and racial politics do exist in US.   Americans will now expect him to fulfil their dreams thus raising their expectations from his Presidency.Trump’s stunning victory is considered an all-out rejection of “establishment politics” of Obama era by the working class and blue collar Americans.
Trump also reached to the Indian American voters acknowledging their strength. For the first time in America surfaced an organisation called Republican Hindu Coalition spearheaded by Chicago-based Shalabh “Shalli” Kumar on the pattern of Republican Jewish Coalition. He coined the slogan, “Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar”, which Trump proudly said while addressing the Indian community in a star-studded gathering at New Jersy. In his brief speech Trump praised Narendra Modi as a “great man” and said, “The Indian and Hindu community will have a true friend in White House. We will together defeat radical Islamic terrorism.” Trump was quick to recognise the potential of 4 million strong Indian-American community and the role it can play in his victory in the swing states. Indian Americans are the highest earning and the most educated ethnic group in the US. The latest figures of US Census Bureau show a median income of $100,547 for Indian Americans, compared to national average of $51,939. Though only forming one percent of the population they are the major financial donors for the campaign. Kumar’s RHC turned out to be a mega-donor for Trump’s campaign. Indian-Americans are traditionally supporters of the Democratic Party and to woo them to his camp was a major strategic move made by Trump. To allay the fears about his hate for immigrants he clarified that he would welcome “skilled and educated immigrants” and was against only un-skilled illegal and Muslim immigrants. While the electoral Pundits had predicted that only 7% Indian-Americans will vote for him the actual polling figures may be vastly different. This would have a considerable influence on Trump’s mind while working out Indo-US ties. Incidentally, five Indian Americans have also been elected to the US Congress, though all on Democratic tickets.
Why is it that Trump’s unexpected victory has caused tremors not only in US but across the world? He plans to cancel North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which will have serious ramifications for the Canadian and Mexican economies. He is against Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, a trade agreement, signed only in February 2016 after seven years of negotiation and involves 12 Pacific Rim nations (less China) and a pet project of Obama. Re-writing of other major trade deals is also his promise to the voters. Building a wall along the US-Mexico border; a re-look at Obamacare; renew with vigour the fight against Islamist militants and global jihadi terror organisations; ending illegal and Muslim migration are the other issues the fulfilment of which the global community will watch keenly.  His vision for America will also be under the lens. His threat to pull-out from Paris climate change Agreement has got environmentalists worried all over the world. His supposed closeness to Valdimir Putin and how it shapes future US-Russia relations will impact the international strategic equations. Trump’s assertion to confront China will have a significant impact on India as much as his pronouncements against Pakistan dubbing it as “a safe haven for terrorists and an irresponsible nuclear state like North Korea.”
The Republican election manifesto described India as a geo-political ally and a strategic trading partner. India is central to US “Pivot to Asia” doctrine or any other plan to contain China in Indian Ocean/South China Sea and Trump’s declared fight against Islamic fundamentalist terror. However, Trump’s protectionist trade policies with “America First” as his declared policy, ending of H1B visa, promise to reduce corporate tax from 35% to 15% may have an adverse impact on Indian economy. India has a lot to gain also from Trump presidency. Trump wants to woo skilled Indians, Indian entrepreneurs and students to US. Trump’s hard stance against China and terrorism and India’s fast growing economy would ensure heralding of a new India-US era changing the long term American perception of India being a Soviet ally as a continuation of the Cold War policies. Most of the American laws are based on this perception thus denying India access to high end technology   and weapons. It is hoped that Trump will bring in changes to help India access high-tech weaponry and remove Pakistan from the status of a “favoured nation”. US under Trump will also continue to pursue India’s entry into the NSG and its permanent representation in the UN Security Council since India enjoys bipartisan support in the American Congress. The statement of Alexander Gray, a senior military adviser of Trump, “Trump administration would attempt to strengthen the defence side where it shares so much common ground with India. At a time when India’s foreign policy is changing because of China and Pakistan, because of Islamic terrorism, we need to be there to greet them with open arms. I think, Trump Administration is ready to do that,” is an indicator of shape of things to come.
The American voter like his Indian counterpart in 2014 has voted for radical change.  To ensure that he does not betray the hopes of millions of Americans President elect Trump will have to walk the talk sooner than later.
(The author is a Jammu based columnist, political              commentator, security and strategic analyst.)
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