Prof D Mukherjee
In the 2024 U.S. elections, the Republican Party, led by Donald J. Trump, achieved a significant victory. With 54 seats in the Senate and 241 in the House, Republicans now hold a decisive majority over the Democrats, who retained 46 Senate seats and 194 House seats. Trump’s clear win over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was driven by a targeted approach, populist messaging, and a highly motivated conservative base. Although early polls had Harris ahead, Trump’s focused strategy on key issues and his populist appeal proved highly effective, securing a clear GOP victory.Trump’s return to the presidency is expected to bring notable shifts in international relations, particularly in South Asia and the Middle East. His “America First” stance and unpredictable foreign policy signal possible changes in U.S. alliances, economic approaches, and security strategies in these regions. His past actions, such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and shaping the Afghan peace process, give insight into potential future policies.
South Asia is a region characterized by dynamic security, economic, and diplomatic challenges. South Asia, with its complex mix of rising powers, nuclear-armed states, and a growing demographic footprint, has always been a focal point in global geopolitics. In particular, India, the region’s largest democracy and a strategic partner for the United States, faces both opportunities and challenges in its relations with a Trump-led administration.Trump’s presidency is expected to re-energize the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, a framework that was designed to counterbalance China’s influence in Asia. Given Trump’s strong stance on China, the U.S. is likely to pursue a more vigilant approach toward Beijing, enhancing security and economic partnerships with regional players like India, Japan, and Australia. India, as a critical member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), is positioned to receive more support from the U.S. in terms of defence technology transfers, intelligence sharing, and perhaps even increased economic incentives aimed at reducing dependency on Chinese supply chains.This realignment is likely to place India at the forefront of the U.S. strategic vision in the region. For New Delhi, this translates to an opportunity to strengthen its military capabilities and assert its role as a counterbalance to China.
However, India must carefully navigate this intensified U.S.-China rivalry, as rising tensions could draw the region into conflicts that threaten regional stability, though the recent bilateral Indo-China military disengagement is a forward-looking diplomatic approach in enhancing confidence building measures between two militarily empowered giants. As far as India-Pakistan relations and regional security is concerned, the Trump administration’s policy toward Pakistan has historically been transactional, with past administrations emphasizing counterterrorism cooperation while expressing frustration over Pakistan’s alleged support for certain militant groups. Trump’s 2024 victory may result in the U.S. revisiting this stance, particularly if it prioritizes Afghan stability and containment of terrorism originating from the region. While Trump may not be as engaged with Pakistan as previous administrations, there may be pressure on Pakistan to align more closely with U.S. interests, especially in counterterrorism.This position indirectly supports India’s stance against cross-border terrorism, potentially giving New Delhi greater leverage. However, should Trump’s policies exacerbate U.S.-Pakistan tensions, Pakistan may lean further toward China, its key ally. Such a shift could intensify India-Pakistan-China rivalries and impact regional security. On the economic front, Trump’s “America First” policy may lead to a complex dynamic for India. Trump’s return may signal a revival of protectionist policies and a re-evaluation of trade agreements, potentially complicating India-U.S. trade relations. However, Trump’s past policies also included favourable bilateral deals with India, and this trend may continue in sectors of mutual interest, such as defence, energy, and technology.With a growing emphasis on decoupling from China, Trump may encourage American companies to invest in India as an alternative manufacturing base. This shift could create significant economic opportunities for India, particularly in technology, pharmaceuticals, and defence production. Yet, India would need to address key concerns like regulatory hurdles and labour laws to fully benefit from this potential investment.Trump’s previous administration was marked by stringent immigration policies that affected many Indian professionals and students in the U.S. While Trump’s stance on immigration is unlikely to shift significantly, India may advocate for a more balanced approach that considers the contributions of the Indian diaspora. Any restrictive measures could impact the Indian economy by limiting remittances and reducing opportunities for skilled professionals abroad.
However, Trump may also recognize the strategic importance of maintaining strong people-to-people ties with India, especially in technology and healthcare.Trump’s victory introduces both potential gains and risks for South Asia, and particularly for India. On one hand, closer strategic ties with the U.S. may help India bolster its regional standing and counterbalance China. On the other hand, India must tread carefully to avoid deep entanglement in U.S.-China tensions, while managing sensitive issues with Pakistan and adapting to possible shifts in U.S. economic policy.For South Asia as a whole, Trump’s win signals a continued U.S. focus on countering China’s influence, but also an era of unpredictability that requires regional powers like India to engage in delicate diplomatic balancing. As a central player in U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, India has the opportunity to shape the region’s trajectory while safeguarding its own sovereignty and regional interests amidst global power shifts.
As far as the Middle East is concerned, the White House during the second term presidency of of Donald J. Trump is expected to play a transformative role in global geopolitics. Known for his assertive “America First” approach, Trump is likely to revisit his policies with renewed focus, reshaping U.S. engagement with key players like Israel, Iran, and other regional powers. His administration’s policies could potentially redefine power dynamics in the Middle East, affecting issues from nuclear proliferation to regional alliances and counterterrorism efforts.Trump has been a staunch supporter of Israel, demonstrated during his first term by the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the historic Abraham Accords. His re-election likely signals an intensified support for Israel, with further expansion of the Accords as a diplomatic priority. Trump may aim to bring more Arab nations into formalized relations with Israel, positioning this as a path to regional stability and countering Iran’s influence.
Enhanced U.S.-Israel cooperation could also lead to increased military and intelligence support, bolstering Israel’s capacity to counter Iran-backed entities such as Hezbollah and Hamas. For Israel, Trump’s return is seen as a strategic advantage, enabling it to pursue its regional security interests more assertively with solid U.S. backing.Under Trump’s administration, the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. Trump’s re-election likely means a continuation of this hardline approach. His administration may further escalate sanctions on Iran, aiming to curb its nuclear ambitions and limit its economic resources. By intensifying economic pressure, Trump could seek to force Iran into a new, stricter nuclear agreement that includes more stringent oversight and broader restrictions.This approach is expected to heighten tensions, particularly with Iran’s leadership, which views U.S. sanctions as a direct threat to its economy. While some European nations have favoured diplomatic engagement, Trump’s hardline stance may press allies to reconsider their approach toward Iran.Trump’s Middle East strategy is likely to seek stronger alliances with Arab nations that oppose Iran’s regional ambitions, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. A reinforced coalition against Iran would align these countries’ military and intelligence resources with U.S. interests, potentially deterring Iran’s influence in places like Yemen and Iraq. This could further polarize the Middle East into two camps: pro-Iran and anti-Iran, escalating tensions across the region.Additionally, Trump’s approach could foster economic and defence cooperation with Gulf states, as well as joint initiatives to tackle extremism, counteract Iranian-backed terrorism, and stabilize oil markets.
These alliances would also be leveraged to isolate Iran diplomatically, pressuring it into compliance with U.S.-led conditions.Trump’s re-entry into the White House is likely to deepen U.S. commitment to Israel, intensify containment strategies against Iran, and reshape the alliances across the Middle East. His hardline stance and support for regional coalitions could bring shifts in power balances, creating both opportunities and challenges for peace and stability in the region. While Trump’s assertive policies may curb Iran’s influence, they also risk heightened volatility, marking his presidency as a potential game-changer in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Trump’s return to the White House could thus reinforce U.S.-Israel relations, intensify efforts to counter Iran, and reshape alliances across the Middle East. His assertive policies may curb Iran’s influence but risk adding to regional volatility, positioning his presidency as a potential turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. However, it is too early to predict anything about the impact of the second term presidency ofTrump as geopolitics is a very dynamic spectrum reflecting behaviour of the interested allies and axis across.
(The author is an Educationist, Management Scientist and Independent Researcher)
Follow our WhatsApp channel
