Tarun Upadhyay
The re-emergence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan is posing serious security threat to Pakistan. TTP closely tied to Afghan Taliban had carried out series of attacks including seizing control of Counterterrorism Centre. Despite threats of air strikes Talibans are not coming to its aid and with US pullout Pak is finding it difficult to come out of morass. Ayesha Siddiqa, senior fellow Kings College, London and author of “Military Inc: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy” is a leading military expert on Pakistan. In an interview with Daily Excelsior Ayesha says TTP in an expansionist mode is posing serious threat and Taliban is not controlling it to the expectations of Pakistan.
How serious is TTP’s Threat?
AS: Fairly serious. Before the attacks TTP started extorting money. But at that time negotiations were also going with Lt Gen Faiz, former ISI chief who retired in December, when he was core commander Peshawar. Gradually there was cease fire but violence also resumed. It was back and forth but while they engaged in ceasefire and talks suddenly TTP are no more in mode of holding talks and are more aggressive now.
Why Pak allowed TTP militants to return into its tribal areas?
AS: I suppose there is a problem in the imagination of the Pak State. In urban centres like Lahore and Karachi , mainly Punjab, there is an understanding is that they are safe as long as TTP is not coming there. The problem is TTP is not group of wild militants who appeared from now where. They are the people who were part of tribes that are on both sides of the border( Afghan-Pak border). The understanding in Pakistan was that with the Taliban in power they will control the TTP and there will be settlement. They believed even if TTP is insisting on Sharia it’s ok they can do it in the tribal areas, so some negotiations were going on. They also insisted on reversing the merger of FATA with KPK . The problem is this time the TTP’s demand for Sharia is coming in the background of the Taliban government in Afghanistan. TTPs feel it can expand it further and my fear is this makes these guys “expansionist”. Where will you stop them once they are allowed to carry it in tribal areas? They will expand and can convince others for their version of Sharia.
Isn’t allowing Sharia in Tribal Areas amounts to creating State within a State?
AS: That is how we will interpret it. But a section in Pak military believed it is doable. The point is you don’t want to kill these people who are connected to Afghan Taliban on whom you were banking to control them. There was thinking among some Pak generals that allowing some form of Sharia in tribal areas is actually allowing Pashtun lifestyle (Pashtuwali) and they can do it as long as they don’t bring it to other parts of the country.
Wasn’t Pak wrong in believing Taliban will control TTP as they have close ties?
AS: the major problems this time is there are diverse groups with in the Taliban now. There is Haqqani network, created by Jalaluddin Haqqani, which is close to Pak. Then Gulbuddin Hekmatyar group is also close to Pak and part of the Afghan government so there was a natural sense that since these are our friends they will help us in controlling the TTP. But right now the Afghan Taliban are very different from the earlier version. In 1996 Mullah Omar had a centralized control. This version is actually a network which is divided. In this is mixture there is also Al-Qaeda, Daesh (ISIS). So this is a new mixture which no longer can be controlled and predicted they way you could predict like Mullah Omar run Afghanistan Taliban. The second miscalculation is on Durrand line (Afghan-Pak border) on which there are difference. The Pakistan has put fence and was encouraged by the United State then. This fence is becoming bone of contention.
Why situation hasn’t improved despite efforts?
AS: The situation may not be working as people would want but it is working as the military wants. There have been encounters along the border and attacks in Pakistan too but negotiations are going. So Pak military will probably rate it as collateral damage which can be managed by negotiations or some military operations. Messaging too has been done as foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar visited Afghanistan and asked them to control TTP. Pak state still has relations with Afghan Taliban who have huge dependency on Islamabad. From the military point of view the situations is not out of control though looking bad but from peoples’ perspective it’ s worrisome. State is comfortable as things have not escalated.
Is Pak serious on carrying out air strike?
AS: See, this is a coercive diplomacy. Afghanistan also sent message. The point is it’s not that Pak can’t strike it can but it will expand the conflict and they don’t want it. So the thinking is if situation can be managed by talks and coercion it is fine but if you start war then there would be casualties. Angry people may gang up with even Daesh or other militant group. There are problems and that is why are not expanding arch of conflict.
Afghans are not trusting Pak then what is the way out?
AS: The point is these are non-state actors who are now controlling the state. This is one of the rare things that a group of non-state actor is running the government. Acrimony is there and it’s for long time but still they (Afghans) are dependent on Pak for host of reasons. No country opens up to Afghans like Pakistan does. But curious thing is Pak the is only country where such attacks are taking place. The reason being TTP believes it can expand its kind of Islam here. That makes Pak case interesting. Afghan Talibans are treading cautiously and keeping hands off the region. It’s Pak Talibans which are creating problems and they are aligned with Afghan Talibans who are not punishing TTP as Pak expects them to and that is where the gap is.
Can Pak redo anti-terrorism operations like Zarb-e-Azb?
AS: It is a different time now . You can plan and execute operation but cost of operation would be far more. This is not perhaps the time they think they need to incur that cost . When Zarb-e-Azb was carried out US was in Afghanistan. This time it will be only Pak and militants. Now if this time if Pak gets US drones that would be also dangerous. It’s to be noted that that one of the friction points is killing of Al Zawahri in US drone attack. Taliban has a grudge that Pak allowed US to overfly the drones by allowing its airspace. So Pak at this stage can’t afford to bring in US either for love or money. It had to do it things on its own. Pak is mainly sticking to negotiations and this may be assumed as ” weakness” but Afghan state continues to have dependence on Pakistan. The fact remains Afghans can’t live without Pakistan.
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