Brig Anil Gupta
Syria is a West Asian country bordering Iraq to the east, Turkey to the north, Lebanon and Mediterranean Sea to the west, Jordan to the south and Israel to the south west. It is a Muslim majority nation with 87% of its population practising Islam while the remainder 13% is divided between Christians (10%) and Druze (3%). Sunnis are dominant with 74% of the total population and 13% are Alawite (Shias). President Bashar al-Assad’s family is Shia (Alawite) and Alawaites dominate the government and senior ranks in the military. Assad is the head of a totalitarian Shia-dominated regime. Today, Syria is the largest battlefield in the world with only 30-40% territory and less than 60% population under the government’s control. As per rough estimates more than half of its population is displaced with about 4 million refugees. Aleppo is the largest city followed by the capital Damascus. The Syrian quagmire has become a muddle’s game and is threatening to become a flashpoint for a potential world war. The Syrian crisis also gave birth to a new jihadist terrorist monster called ISIS which is growing in strength and becoming more powerful by the day. It has emerged as an “international” threat that needs to be eliminated before it acquires dangerous proportions.The Syrian economy is in shambles with the jihadist ISIS generating more revenue than the Government.
How it all began? President Assad opposed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and earned the wrath of the Bush Administration. The dirty trick department of CIA soon became active and started encouraging dissent against the authoritarian regime of Assad and fuelled Shia-Sunni divide. It started financing radical Kurdish and Sunni groups, political rivals and dissidents. CIA backed mass protests began in early spring of 2011 as part of the Arab Spring uprisings. Assad ‘s regime acted swiftly to quell the dissent and launched massive crackdowns against the dissident population. Tanks and artillery were used liberally against the anti-regime demonstrators. The regime launched an unrelenting campaign of arrests. The Syrians began to flee for safety. Large scale desertions took place from the Armed Forces. The defecting officers and soldiers from the Syrian Armed Forces joined hands to form the Syrian Free Army (SFA). As the atrocities by the regime continued to grow in order to subjugate Syria’s largest uprising the number of rebel groups kept swelling. By an estimate there are approximately 1000 rebel groups operating in Syria. The fighting intensified in 2012 and increased greatly in tempo and violence. The numbers of civilian casualties were reported to be alarming. What began as an American backed uprising to overthrow the Assad regime soon turned into a civil war with large number of rebel groups identifying themselveswith FSA battling the government forces which comprised of the remnants of Syrian Army and conglomeration of local and Shia militias called National Defence Forces. It further got radicalised with jihadist and Islamist fighters belonging to home grown terror outfits and Al Qaeda backed terrorist organisationJabhat al-Nusra also jumping into the fray. Saudi Arabia liberally financed the rebel and jihadist groups. Assad regime enjoyed the backing of Russia.In 2013, Iran backed Hezbollah entered the conflict in support of Syrian Army turning it into a proxy war between the two regional sectarian powers namely Iran & Saudi Arabia and the world powers led by Russia, US and its allies. Despite liberal foreign aid, the rebel groups failed to overthrow the Assad regime. Syrian National Council – an Opposition Government in exile was formed with very little hold on ground in Syria. The opposition was divided and a fractious collection of political groups, exiles, armed militants with different ideologies and sectarian interests.
2014 saw the emergence on the scene of a Sunni jihadist terror outfit called ISIS or Daesh.In middle of the year it announced the formation of a Caliphate. Assad ignored the ISIS since it was battling with the rebel groups which indirectly helped Assad. It helped ISIS to grab more land, oilfields and towns thus becoming more powerful than the regime. One of the chief sources of income of the regime, the Phosphate Mines, also came under ISIS control since May 2015. ISIS not only took control of huge swathes of territory but also began running a government with Raqa, a Syrian town, as its capital. ISIS in Syria is involved in a “Conflict within a Conflict” battling government forces, rebels, jihadists of al Nusra front and the Kurds.
The spectacular success of ISIS emboldened the jihadist outfit to challenge the West. All those not committed to the ideology of the Caliphate were declared as the enemies. June 2014 onwards international intervention in Syria started against the ISIS. Iran, US and US led coalition executed airstrikes against ISIS targets. France and Russia joined in 2015. The Syrian quagmire has divided the de jure Syrian territory into three power centres. The Western part of the country is under the control of the regime and is dominated by the Alawites and a mosaic of Shia militias trained and funded by Iran. In the Central part control is shared by the Sunni factions, ISIS, al – Nusra Front and many Islamist and jihadist groups. Kurds hold the sway in the North East. While the Assad regime is being supported by Iran, Iraq, Russia and China, the rebels enjoy the support of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, UAE, USA and other western nations. Even today, there is no unity among the political opponents of Assad because of which there is no convincing alternative to Assad.
The conflicting interests of the nations involved in the quagmire are preventing an early end to the civil war which has been described as the “biggest humanitarian emergency of our era” by the United Nations. France, UK, US and its allies support the rebelsand want Assad and ISIS to go. Russia is a staunch supporter of Assad but is against the US intervention and ISIS. Turkey’s role is ambivalent but is using the opportunity to clamp down on Turkish rebels. Iran is pro-Assad and anti-ISIS. Saudi Arabia does not want to yield any strategic space to Iran in the muddy politics of the Middle East. However, one common enemy ISIS stands out that needs to be eliminated earliest. India as a victim of global jihad is also worried by the ISIS threat and would like ISIS to be crushed much beyond its shores.Russia is opposed to any foreign intervention in Syria even with the purported aim of fighting ISIS. It has warned of a “new world war” in case of any attempt by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies to put their boots on ground in Syria. Syria has also vehemently opposed any such move terming it as an act of war against Syria because it is sceptical of the fact that all these countries are well known supporters and sympathisers of the rebels.
It is high time that US and its allies realise their follies of last four year plus and admit their failure to overthrow the Assad regime. There is an elephant in the room in form of ISIS that needs to be crushed. There is a need to build an international consensus and formulate a strategy to defeat ISIS. But before that is done, , it is imperative to set aside all differences, accept the Assad regime, sit at the negotiating table and bring some relief to the millions of Syrians who have been victim of the civil war for almost half a decade now.
(The author is a Jammu based security and strategic analyst.)
(He can be contacted at anil5457@gmail.com)
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