Col Satish Singh Lalotra
“Peace is not the absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means
….Ronald Reagan
The world over mankind has been raked by conflicts most of its own doing .In fact in the last one century more lives have been lost the world over due to internecine conflicts than by any other cause to include pandemics ,natural disasters ,climate change etc.As long as the desire to control ,subjugate others and satiate a man’s needs take precedence over everything else ,conflicts will be the order of the day.Though the world famous psychologist and management guru Abraham Maslow in his 1943 paper “A theory of human motivation” has proposed the “Hierarchy of needs” consisting of famous five steps in a very subtle pyramidal manner with the base occupying “Physiological need” of a man that includes food ,water warmth and rest while graduating to “Safety needs” to include safety and security it doesn’t fit into the template of current Indo-Pak relations and is a misfit in internal power dynamics of these two endemic warring nations.
In fact the present relations between these two countries seem to hurtle directly towards the fourth step of Maslow’s theory i.e “Prestige and a power of accomplishment” thereby turning the theory on its head.Surprising as it may seem but it goes to prove that Maslow was correct only in adjudicating individual human instincts and needs ,but not a collective one as amounting to a nation state.At the center of this power play is the Achilles heel of both countries i.e unfinished agenda of J&K . Starting with the league of nations which was the outcome of 1st WW ,this international body just couldn’t stop the happening of 2nd WW. Hamstrung by myriad reasons UNO came into existence in 1945 after the curtains fell on 2nd WW.Within two years of its formation UNO was called upon as an international arbitrator in 1947 /48 to mediate between the two warring newly formed dominions of India and Pakistan on Kashmir issue ,which is still a festering sore.India having taken the Kashmir dispute to the UN for an amicable settlement found the international body pass resolution number 39/1948 whereby UNCIP/United nation commission for India and Pakistan came into existence as a final arbitrator for the dispute resolution.Shortly there after the UN passed resolution number 47 on 21 st April 1948 ,which mandated an immediate ceasefire on both warring factions and called upon Pakistan to secure withdrawal of its forces from the state of Jand K.
The above resolution also called upon India to reduce its forces strength and go in for plebiscite on the question of accession of the state to India.Thereafter UNCIP made 3 visits to the subcontinent between 1948 and 1949 trying to find out an amicable settlement to the Kashmir imbroglio.From hereon lot of UN involvements to include Mac Naughton proposals, Dixon mission, Frank Graham mission took place as part of Early resolution but to no avail. Just a brief overview here of these efforts before the reader is finally taken to the relevance or otherwise of UNMOGIP /United nation military observer group for India and Pakistan in the present day changed circumstances.The 1948 Mac Naughton proposals were based on the UNSC president Canadian Gen Mac Naughton’S ideas which enclosed a series of steps to include withdrawal of forces of both India and Pakistan (excluding the forces that India would require for its security purposes in the state),demobilization of Azad Kashmir forces and Kashmir militia with Northern areas to be administered under the UN supervision.These proposals were rejected by India.
Next came the Dixon mission under the aegis of UN ,which envisaged that areas which were under Pakistan occupation would be governed by that country as per the laws and customs of the Jand K state before the onset of conflict. This too was rejected by India on the ground that it surreptitiously granted ownership rights to Pakistan of areas which that country occupied illegally circumventing the laid down rules of engagement. Next came Frank Graham mission in the subcontinent who too started in the right earnest to effect demilitarization prior to the plebiscite ,but then both India and Pakistan rejected his proposals.Both countries Just couldn’t agree with his recommendations regarding reduction of troops in the ratio as suggested by him and the number to be stationed in Kashmir.All these hectic parleys ended on 27 th March 1953 when Frank Graham submitted the final report of his failed mission to the UNSC his reporting HQ.
As a throwback to the formation of UNMOGIP ,it is pertinent to mention here that it came into existence immediately after the Indo-Pak Karachi agreement of March 1951 with main charter of duty as to observe ,and report any CFV/Cease fire violation by either of the country to,UNSC.For the benefit of the readers UNMOGIP deploys its observers in UN field stations on both sides of LOC .In POK the UN field stations are located at Skardu, Gilgit ,Domel ,Rawlakot ,Kotli and Bhimber.A UN field station is also located at Sialkot along the working boundary.In Indian part of Kashmir they are located at Poonch, Rajauri ,and Jammuwith a liaison office at New Delhi .The UNMOGIP’s main HQ controls and directs all the activities of its field stations.UNMOGIP’s HQ is located in Srinagar from May to oct ,whereas it is located in Islamabad from November to April .When UNMOGIP HQ is located in Srinagar ,a rear HQ is located at Islamabad and vice versa.
The mandate of this organisation is primarily to observe ,record and report any CFVs to its next higher HQ i.e the UNSC, who in turn take up the issue with the erring country and advice it to desist from taking any action which may jeopardize the life and limbs of the local population.Without going much into the details about the CFVs ,it is pertinent to mention here that there have been approximately 20071 (Twenty thousand and seventy one) CFVs from 2002 till last year as per GOI with total physical casualties rising to 74 . Correspondingly the data released by Pakistan foreign office sources claim the CFVs to be the order of only 2164(Two thousand one hundred and sixty four ony) w.e.f 2002 till as late as 2018 with the number of casualties on their side being 69 only.This high disparity in data between two countries shows the different set of parameters being adopted by Pakistan to classify any border firing incident into a CFV.
Now coming to the core issue of UNMOGIPs relevance in the changed geopolitical environment obtaining in the immediate neighborhood of JandK where terrorism has become the state sponsored instrument of Pakistan to effect a geopolitical change in the state which often results into CFVs .After 1971 war and Shimla agreement of 1972 and the consequent conversion of CFL into a LOC which is more or less a permanent fixture ,the stand of India is very clear that UNMOGIP has outlived its utility and hence should be done away with once for all.But Pakistan’s views are always contrary to it ,and as per their UN envoy MaleehaLodhi the role and importance of UNMOGIP has in fact increased in view of India scrapping article 370 and reconstituting into two union territories of J and K and Ladakh. As per her this action of India alludes to flagrant violation of laid down rules as enshrined for early resolution of this issue and over here UNMOGIPs role comes into play for regional stability. This logic of Pakistan is the most antiquated one when seen in the light of the fact that most CFVs undertaken nowadays are as a result of covering fire action to help facilitate infiltration of their terrorists across India.
It is pertinent to mention here that UNMOGIP’s role as stated above is restricted only till, observing ,reporting ,collating the CFVs and forwarding it to the UNSC for their further analysis .The UNSC till date has not given its analysis and it remains a secret.Of what use is a UN observer in a disputed zone when it doesn’t share its concerns with the two warring nations on CFVs.In fact it has been regularly reported that Pakistan has been regularly orchestrating the CFVs in a manner and calling upon the UN observers to the site such as to show itself as an aggrieved party and India as an aggressor.Since UNMOGIP was basically a successor of UNCIP and formed under the aegis of UNSC ,the terms of reference for its formation formulated way back in 1948/49 now need a drastic realigning with the new geopolitical realities staring at it.
The entire world is aware of the fact that our western neighbor is under the Grey list of FATF(Financial action task force) an intergovernmental body of decision making on money laundering for terror financing .The fact that Pakistan has been placed alongside countries like Bahamas, Botswana, Cambodia, Eithopia, Ghana, Syria etc it speaks volumes about its involvement in terror activity promotion all over the world.With Shimla agreement of 1972,having permanently fixed the LOC on ground ,the increasing amount of CFVs on account of differing of perceptions on ground is no longer a valid excuse for Pakistan to indulge in this alibi. This new revelation should have woken up UNSC long time back and cognizance accordingly taken by way of instructing the UN observers to be more scrupulous in finding out the real cause of these CFVs as also to take more seriously the material evidence provided at the site of the CFV by India as to the complicity of Pakistan in terms of captured weapons ,ammunition , war like stores ,captured militants etc.The fact that UNSC hasn’t changed even the mandate of its observers in so far as their working and reporting is concerned of CFVs ,goes to prove the pussyfooted attitude of this world body.
The fact that Maleeha Lodhi, the Pak envoy to the UN reiterated last September ,that the role of UNMOGIP has become more onerous in view of unilateral decision taken by India on 05 th August 2019,bespoke of her view clouded by the geopolitical expediency thereby giving a short shrift to the actuals on the ground. But at the same time her statement shed light on the dark side of Pakistani Psyche to foment trouble nonetheless by way of inciting CFVs and forewarning UN to take cognizance of it and shifting the onus on India as an aggressor.India on its part should now take full advantage of the fact that it has been selected after a gap of eight years to the seat of Non permanent member of the UNSC and put pay to rest all these speculations of UNMOGIP performing its duty in an impartial way as claimed by Pakistan.India should tweak all available levers at its disposal to call the bluff of such international organizations in its entirety so that the world knows the actual ground position prevailing and pressure could be brought to bear on UNSC to be more objective in its handling of such delicate matters.
(The writer is a Retired Colonel from the Indian Army)
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