Anil Anand
Just on the cusp of Uttar Pradesh (UP) assembly elections, the opposition parties can fathom their chances under the light of the fact that since 1989 no incumbent ruling party has been repeated to power. That should merely be a reason for these parties to draw a solace but this is not reason enough to overturn the BJP’s mighty apple-cart.
Barely a few months away from the election which would decide the fate of incumbent chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, a fast emerging face of the BJP other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, as he could either create history by retaining power or be relegated to the back if this does not happen. More than the Yogi, the focus of this election- given UP’s significance with 80 Lok Sabha seats- is on how the opposition camp achieves or not the much needed unity.
Comparing the two sides on either side of the electoral divide it can be safely assumed that the BJP with all its might, huge resources both in terms of organizational network and money-power and larger than life images of Mr Modi and the Yogi mainly created through sustained media campaigns, could retain power. The assumption also gets a fillip from the fact that the much expected opposition unity particularly after Trinamool Congress chief Ms Mamta Banerjee’s spectacular victory over BJP in West Bengal assembly elections, is nowhere to be seen. On the contrary a four-cornered contest in all probability is on the cards in UP.
But does this scenario convey the final picture or that the BJP under Modi-Shah-Yogi combine to sit on its laurels? Firstly, the BJP’s current culture does not permit any chance of the party becoming careless in the face of dissipated opposition unity. However, on the finality of the poll picture the last word is still to be either spoken or written.
The Yogi-government driven by a strong and sustained advertising campaign has been able to create an image of a dispensation having largely delivered on its promises particularly on the developmental front. This is another matter whether the ground-realities match with this claim or not.
Ostensibly, aware that there could be some chinks, on the ground, in these claims, the BJP strategists are not leaving anything to chance and turned heavily towards their time tested strategy of raking up “Hindutava” agenda on way to polarisation on religious grounds. That is why the focus on construction of Ram Temple in Ayodhya. And as if that was not enough, senior BJP leader and deputy chief minister, Mr Keshav Prasad Maurya stirred the controversy by bringing in discourse the construction of Mathura temple as a next step.
It would be naive to say that the Yogi-government was not facing any anti-incumbency on account of failure to deliver on the indices of development, education, employment, law and order price rise and above all mishandling of the COVID-19 scene. And, of course, the since called-off over a year-long farmers agitation is a cause of worry for the BJP. Or else why did Prime Minister Mr Modi suddenly announce repelling of three controversial farm-laws and subsequently accepted all demands of the protesting farmers.
One explanation could be that the ruling dispensation under Modi-Shah- Yogi did not want to leave anything to chance as the epicenter of the farmers agitation was right on the borders of UP with the farm belt of western UP playing a pivotal role. And rightly too as the UP assembly election will set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. It is crucial for BJP to handsomely win the assembly election if it were to capture a majority of the 80 Lok Sabha seats.
The party will like to enter the general elections on a high note as a loss or victory with lower margins will increase the risk factor. In order not to leave anything to chance it has reverted to its time-tests strategies of “Hindutava” and related polarization.
Given this scenario the opposition camp on the face of it is in a state of complete disarray. The more the efforts at unity the more divided they stand. The alliances are mostly based on roping in smaller parties, a strategy which is common to BJP and its likely rival the Samajwadi Party. The one factor that should worry the BJP is that the Samajwadi Party has finalized an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RLD) of late Mr Ajit Singh and now headed by his son Jayant Chaudhary.
The RLD has its strong base, which was eroded by BJP’s stellar performance in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in this predominantly agricultural belt dominated by farmers which accounts for 120 of the 403 assembly seats. On the basis of strong sentiment against the BJP owing to the three farm-laws and the related farmers’ agitation, the RLD has re-captured the imagination of the farming community which had been its core support base in the past.
It is widely known that the elections in this Hindi belt was contested primarily on religion, caste and sub-caste basis right from the selection of candidates to the voting patterns. The contours of divide on religious-lines have become clear but the formulations at the levels of castes and finally castes combining with particular religious communities are still to emerge.
The RLD getting back on the track and acquiring the centrestage in western UP during the course of the farmers’ agitation, has become a key area of interest. How the party regains its lost space and its conversion into electoral victory has become an area of keen interest.
From the opposition point of view it is almost clear that most of the major political parties such as Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Congress will be plowing their lone furrows. Apart from the Samajwadi Party-RLD alliance, the performance of these parties will depend on how the caste and religion combinations are formulated.
Another interesting factor to be observed is how the Congress under Mrs Priyanaka Gandhi Vadra’s solo leadership shapes up as she has been focusing on creating a new vote bank of women, although she has been over the months trying to raise issues related to weaker sections of the society, youth and law and order.
There is no doubt that the opposition camp is perhaps focused on the post-poll scene so far as the unity factor is concerned. Will they come together if the Samajwadi Party-RLD combine or the BSP, or Congress falls short of majority to form the Government?
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