Dr Satish Misra
The die has been cast and various political players have started making their respective moves on the political game board. In normal course next Lok Sabha elections are due in early 2014 but 18 months before the schedule atmosphere has begun to build up.
The monsoon session of parliament had been a total washout and the ruling combine at the Centre stood beleaguered and accused in public eyes of policy paralysis and non-performance. The principal opposition party-the BJP- along with other opposition parties had begun to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh holding him guilty of graft and corruption.
Faced with a serious dilemma of now or never, the UPA-II in its third year was yet again confronted with hard choice of either allow the ship to drift or take the initiative and fight out with a faint hope of making it yet again. Like in July 2008 when the Left parties had withdrawn support to the UPA-I on the issue of the Indo-US nuclear deal, the UPA-II is confronted with the almost sure threat of withdrawal of support from 19 MP strong Trinamool Congress (TMC) of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
While the India and the US had decided to push for the Indo-US nuclear deal with the objective of bringing out New Delhi’s isolation on the nuclear energy issue in 2005 and the Left had declared its intent to oppose it and other economic issues from the beginning, the TMC too has been creating problems for the ruling coalition from almost the first day with its supremo holding the Railways portfolio embarked upon a populist path in her effort to outbid her arch political rival-the Left.
Even as the Ministry of Railways was used as a milch cow by her to gain political space in her home state of West Bengal to end the 39 years old rule of the Left Front to achieve her life-long ambition of climbing up the chief ministerial chair, she single handedly blocked the passage of crucial bills like that of Land Acquisition and Compensation Bill passing of which by the two houses of parliament would possibly have facilitated the economic growth and the ruling coalition would have been saved from the stigma of “policy paralysis”.
The Congress leadership gave a very long rope to Mamata in the hope that helping her to achieve her Chief Ministerial ambition, she may relent seeing the economic logic but that did not happen and once again it was proved that she was a street fighter and not a statesman with long-term vision.
When pushed to a corner with not even a remote chance of a political survival, the Congress appears to have decided to bite the bullet and took hard decisions on hiking the diesel price and capping up delivery of six LPG cylinders to every household in a year and opened the multi-brand sector for foreign direct investment (FDI) and the political hell broke out.
The TMC supremo held an emergency meeting of his party in Kolkata and announced the withdrawal of support to the Congress-led UPA on Tuesday evening but maintained that her six ministers in the council of ministers would resign on Friday.
It seems almost certain now that the threat from Mamata is real this time and the UPA-II would have to manage its survival without the TMC and would have to willingly or unwillingly ride crises. It would have to pay a heavy price for its political survival as the parties like the SP and BSP are bound to make demands.
Adversarial equations between the two UP parties offer hope for the survival of the UPA. The BSP, with its 21 MPs, is going to decide its course of action on October 9 but the BSP supremo Mayawati would not like to go into the elections immediately as SP’s magic over UP’s electorate has started reducing but has yet not withered away. She will like to wait little more before taking the final step of rocking the UPA boat.
In case of Mulayam Singh Yadav too, a decision to bring down the Manmohan Singh government is not very easy as there are serious differences over this between him and his son UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav who is a realist and knows well that it was almost impossible to repeat the performance of the Assembly elections held early this year. Akhilesh is said to be reluctant to take a step in the unknown while his father itching to gamble politically.
With the support of either of the two and some smaller parties along with independents, the Congress can manage to survive till 2014 thus getting time to repair the economy and bring back the country back on the higher growth path.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has already offered a window of opportunity. He has acted relatively transparently when he announced his price saying that “Whoever supports special status for Bihar, we will support them at the Centre”.
Days ahead are going to be politically alive as new political understandings would emerge replacing the old ones. While the BJP and its allies would try to make corruption a major issue in the coming Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal and eventually in the general elections, the Congress would try its best to show to the people that it can deliver.
A rejig in the party and the cabinet is on cards. If fresh and young faces are given a bigger role both in the party as well as in the Government then it is bound to make an impact on the popular mind.
Task for the Congress-led coalition government at the centre is not easy but is definitely not impossible. It has to continue on the course that has been set by the Prime Minister last week. National mood and public opinion is prone to fast changes and the Congress as a party needs to back the government in one voice. (IFS)
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