Prof Javed Mughal
India’s next general election is due in 2014, but after the DMK’s departure from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) over the Sri Lankan Tamil issue and Samajwadi Party’s war of words with Congress, the bugle of the next general election has been sounded by the major political parties. Though the Congress has expressed confidence to be able to complete the tenure, it has become a minority government which is impacting their decision making process. Hence an early election cannot be ruled out if Congress leadership feels that it is better to face the election than to live with both hands tied. It leads to a predictable question as to who will lead Congress or UPA in the forthcoming election. While Rahul Gandhi’s appointment to the party’s vice presidential post (now he is number two in position in the party, after the party president Sonia Gandhi) and the clout Gandhi family has over the Congress, it is most likely that Mr. Gandhi will lead the Congress in the forthcoming election. However, it is also possible that the Congress at the eleventh hour may promote other candidates, like they did in 2004 by surprisingly nominating Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister. But things have changed for Manmohan Singh and it is most unlikely that he will get another opportunity for Prime Ministership. Even if Dr. Singh doesn’t get the nod for the third term (He indicated that he hasn’t ruled himself out for the third term) as Prime Minister, he will remain an influential Congressman, because irrespective of his recent performance, Dr. Singh is still widely regarded as one of the important policy makers of India and his service will remain crucial for the party.
Since it may be the last tenure for Dr. Singh as Prime Minister, it is important to analyse the operational dynamics of Manmohan Singh as a technocrat and technocrat turned Prime Minister, because Mr. Singh curiously anchored the Indian economy in two different eras of India. As a finance minister he first guided the radar less Indian economy in the 1990’s and later became the captain of the ship and almost guided it to a double digit GDP growth when the whole world’s economy was shaken by recession. Manmohan Singh is largely credited for bringing the much needed reform in India in the early 1990’s. Under Prime Minister PV Narasima Rao, Mr. Singh as a finance minister then, had to initiate economic reforms in response to the rapid deterioration of the Indian economy. With deepening foreign exchange crisis, growing fiscal imbalances, increasing rate of inflation and weakening of overall economic growth meant, India was close to declare a financial emergency. Indian policy think tanks had seen enough of the socialistic model of economy and rigid license raj system which further encouraged red tapism. Collapse of the Soviet Union meant India lost its all-weather friend in world diplomacy. Adding insult to injury the gulf war also fuelled the already worsening economic scenario and the situation turned so bad that India had to use its gold reserves to pledge it with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan. India had to walk the path of reforms but even then the roadblock was significant. The opposition called it the country’s surrender to the IMF. But that was the time India saw an academically brilliant, soft spoken Manmohan Singh introducing a slew of first generation economic reforms and steering the Indian economy to stability.
Throughout his career Manmohan Singh was assigned jobs that demanded sharp intellect. Before he took over the finance minister’s post under PV Narasima Rao, he had served as deputy chairperson of the Planning Commission and Governor of the Reserve bank of India, which required encyclopaedic knowledge and foresightedness. Many fondly call his formulas “Manmohanics.” But Manmohan Singh never became a mass leader. He hardly had any affectionate mass following. He opted for the Rajya Sabha entry to become a member of the parliament. He never won any Lok Sabha election. Only once he contested a Lok Sabha seat in 1999, from South Delhi, where he had to face defeat. It was thus a Christmas gift that he was chosen as the prime ministerial candidate when Sonia Gandhi refused to become the Prime minister in 2004. In his second innings, the acid test came through the Indo-US civil nuclear deal. The Left Front who won 59 seats in the Lok Sabha election threatened to withdraw support in case the bill was passed. Under tremendous pressure Dr Singh summoned all his leadership qualities, and with the support of the Samajwadi party the bill was passed. The glimpses of old Manmohan was visible then. An uncomfortable Left Front soon withdrew support, but in the 2009 election they couldn’t perform satisfactorily, winning only 24 seats. The Congress, under the leadership of Dr. Singh handsomely won 205 seats and secured for him another term as the prime Ministership.
Manmohan Singh currently is India’s third longest serving PM and he is the only one since pandit Nehru to return to power after completing a full five-year term. But the last tenure (2009- till now) has brought Dr. Singh more criticism than accolades. He is severely criticised as a “tragic figure” and “silent prime minister.” For Manmohan Singh’s part he didn’t do enough to allay these criticisms. The man hailed as the modern economic architect of India; he failed to bring second generation reforms. While some of the reform programs are halted by coalition partners, his biggest failure was his inability to curb the menace of corruption in the government.
It is understandable if someone failed to bring economic reforms because even after liberalising Indian economy almost two decades ago, the term “reform” is perceived as “anti-poor” amongst many political parties. But Dr. Singh’s image was not only damaged by the falling rupee and slow economic growth (The Economic Survey 2012-13 has pegged the country’s economic growth forecast at 6.1-6.7% in the coming financial year) but due to his inability to reign in the massive corruption patronised by some of his own cabinet colleagues. If the image of a humble, honest and yet sharp intellectual technocrat helped him to succeed, his softness towards corruption may have ruined him the third term.
Ever since we have entered the era of coalition politics, just before the general elections the very idea of the Third Front getting the magic number pops up. Both the BJP and the Congress have categorically dismissed the Third Front as non-starter. The problem with the Third Front is that it is a combination of some opportunistic leaders, who enjoy undisputable clout in their respective home states, with a dream of becoming the prime minister of the country. And that has been their problem for a long time. The Third Front always has too many leaders of prime ministerial ambition and that is one of the factors why they have never emerged as an alternative to NDA or UPA. The Third front will come into the thick of action only if the NDA or the UPA perform extremely poorly in the next general election.
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