DK Kotwal
BJP’s crushing debacle in UP and Bihar Lok sabha by- polls at the hands of SP and BSP combo appears untrue and unimaginable as recently BJP made inroads into the eastern states and making itself a potent and genuine force to rule the nation. This poll gain to the two party combine is shocking for BJP leadership and at the same time eye opening for them also. What I feel is that it is a ‘wake up’ call for the BJP from the deep slumber and be aware of the ground realities prevalent in the Northern and Western BJP ruled states. If we cast a cursory look at the foregone by- election of Lok sabha in Rajasthan, Punjab and even MP, in these states BJP has meted out a sever decimation.
In post by-election result, Yogi the UP Chief Minister candidly accepted that the Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha by-election results were a lesson for the party, citing overconfidence and the inability to decipher the equation between SP and BSP as prime reasons for the BJP defeat. In the beginning the candidates were declared and there was no political understanding between the two parties- SP and BSP but in the middle the two forged a political understanding – SP would field its candidates and in quid – pro-quo BSP would be helped out in the Rajya Sabha elections. Yogi UP CM conceded that the party underestimated this unholy relationship and did not conceive its repercussions. The losing Gorkhpur and Phulpur seats is quit embarrassing for BJP because Gorkhpur seat is Yogi’s own (Math) seat and was retained by him for five times in a row and the second one Phulpur was vacated by his deputy CM Maurya; this was one presented by Jawaharlal Nehru and later it became a stronghold of BSP and in 2014 election it was scooped up by BJP. Yogi frankly admitted in news conference that by-election was fought on local issues whereas general elections are contested on national issues, it is easily inferred that the State Government was insensitive and indifferent towards immediate local problems and now it has to address them if the party has to hoist tri- color on Red Fort in 2019.
The Bihar and UP by-elections have given the BJP a gigantic blow , so big that if the trend continues the BJP is facing defeat in 2019 general elections. The key worry for BJP is not coming together of opposition but a massive swing in votes from them in UP and massive swing in favor of the opposition both in UP and Bihar .In UP for SP supported by BSP, the positive swing is of 9 percent to 10 percent higher than their combined votes in 2014. And the swing against BJP was even more significant – especially as the swing against BJP is in its strongest seats including the CMs’ seat held for nearly 30 years by the BJP. In nutshell, BJPs’ defeat –66 percent is due to the unity of the opposition and 33 percent due to swing against them.
Surprisingly, in some ways, the Bihar loss for the BJP will be even more grim. They would have hoped that the alliance between the BJP and their former bitter critic Nitish Kumar should have virtually guaranteed them an easy victory, coupled with attack on Lalu Yadav. Democracy is full of surprises—voters dismissed BJP and Nitish’s tactics and instead handed 8% swing in favor of Lalu’s party RJD. The two basic lessons from these elections are—first, it seems that the tide is beginning to turn against the BJP. The swing away in Modi’s territory, Gujrat was the first indicator –and these by-elections seem to confirm that trend. Secondly ,if the opposition wants to win 2019 election they cannot rely upon the swing away of voters from BJP camp and a sharp decline in popularity of BJP but they will have to form a reliable and broad based ‘Gathbandhan’ of whole opposition sinking all their differences and the historical baggage but still it can be safely said on the basis of the logic that I have enumerated in the coming lines that Modi and Amit Shah can easily turn it around. The SP and BSP alliance that is responsible for debacle of BJP is very fragile. Mayawati distrusts and dislikes Yadavs and Yadavs are as capable of self sabotage as Gandhis. Even if SP-BSP alliance stays tuned , it is extremely risky. Modi is a gifted politician and capable of redefining narrative in a short time. United opposition will make it easier for him to claim that everyone else is corrupt, terrified and hypocritical and only he is the honest, principled and the survivor , India needs. Opposition unity will actually make his job straight forward. He is at his best in his fight against the dark overwhelming forces.
One can easily visualisze that for Modi and Shah this defeat is not as problematic as it may appear. You might argue that this poll loss is a setback to the invincibility of BJP in the run up to the 2019 general election. We must not put aside the facts, that in this election Modi was not face of the party in UP by-election. He was never at risk of losing his credibility as a mascot .. Yogi was supposed to deliver Gorkhpur at least with ease. Phulpur not traditionally BJP’s territory should have been managed. Yogi’s over a dozen rallies were not enough to turn the wave against the SP-BSP pact. It is an open secret that Yogi is not in the good books of Modi and Shah they always distrusts him. This is one reason that defeat is not entirely unwelcome to them. Now, Yogi will have less bargaining power in 2019 election and the duo of Mr. Modi and Shah will freely distribute the tickets among the potent candidates based on winnability criteria. Now, there is a notion that seats are wide open for 2019 general election. Many independents and other political aspirants will try their luck and contest the election. Such a situation naturally favours the large force with greater monetary resources. It is said that erosion of BJP’s popularity under Yogi is that his Government is seen as upper caste raj. People call Yogi Samraj as Thakur Samraj. This may be an exaggeration and a deliberate effort by opposition to defame him. The famous encounter policy is regarded as chase of Muslim and Dalits by Thakur cops. His ascendancy has led Dalits feel more unsafe than under SP rule. There are widely circulated reports of vandalism at the Ambedkar statues. Still there is a year to go for 2019 election that is more than enough for Modi- India’s most successful OBC politician to persuade non-Yadav OBC and even more Dalits that his Government is not Savarn Raj. Skillful candidate selection will help.
Both Phulpur and Gorkhpur elections were noticeable for low turn out. This is a sign of many things—Urban voters are unhappy with BJP and didn’t cast their vote at all and it is only BSP and SP committed voters of rural areas who voted for them. Nodoubt, Modi is rapidly losing his popularity but it can be checked if corrective measure are taken and the promises of 2019 election are fulfilled .He will also have to keep intact his allies and only in that way it will be a force to be reckoned with. Modi has to be cautious about the recently hosted dinner in favour of 20 odd political parties by UPA chairperson in an attempt to unite opposition against him.
Hoi polloi will be with Modi BJP party if it guarantees five fundamentals of life for them—-food, clothes ,shelter, medicines and education.
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