Nishikant Khajuria
Even as the mega exercises for the delimitation of constituencies followed by revision of electoral rolls have already been completed and the security situation also seems to have improved after abrogation of Article 370, uncertainty still looms large over holding on elections for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly in the near future. Though the mainstream political parties are conducting public rallies and other routine activities related to organizational affairs, no enthusiasm and a virtual sense of frustration is visible among all these parties across Jammu and Kashmir.
Last Assembly elections in erstwhile J&K State were held in 2014 when People’s Democratic Party had emerged as the single largest party, followed by National Conference and Bhartiya Janta Party. The hung verdict brought poles apart PDP and BJP together and the duo formed a coalition for Government, which could not complete its tenure because of the clash of their political interests. Pulling out of the ruling coalition by BJP led to collapse of the Mehbooba Mufti -led Government in June 2018 and imposition of Governor rule in J&K while the Assembly was put in suspended animation. However, on November 22, 2018, the then Governor Satya Pal Malik, who succeeded N N Vohra on completion of the former’s extended term, dissolved the Assembly after both Mehbooba Mufti and Sajjad Gani Lone of People’s Conference staked claim to form Government with the support of NC and BJP, respectively. Contrary to the speculations that Assembly elections would be conducted soon along with Lok Sabha polls, which were scheduled in May 2019, J&K continued to remain under the Governor’s rule and then came August 5, 2019, when the very identity of Jammu and Kashmir State was changed.
Now more than three years have passed since the abrogation of Article 370 and re-organization of erstwhile State into two Union Territories, but there seems no indication with regard to early Assembly elections in J&K UT. The period of last three years has witnessed a number of developments on various fronts, particularly improvement in the security scenario and establishment of three-tier Panchayti Raj System with the holding of BDC as well as DDC elections for the first time in history of Jammu and Kashmir. However, the much awaited Assembly elections are still nowhere on the scene.
Delay in holding the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir was officially attributed to Delimitation of Assembly constituencies, which took two years in completing the assigned task. Even as no such exercise was conducted when Telangana State was carved out of erstwhile Andhra Pradesh on the plea that there was bar on delimitations of seats till 2026, J&K was made an exception. Delimitation of the constituencies was followed by summery revision of voters lists and the exercise got completed recently with publication of the final electoral roll on November 25, 2022. Despite completion of delimitation process and necessary electoral rolls revision, it is a well established fact that Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir cannot be held before March 2023 because of the climatic conditions here as the Valley and upper reaches of Jammu division remain snow bound at least by the ending of February month.
However, the most ironic part is that all the major political parties are almost convinced that Assembly elections in J&K are unlikely to be held even after March 2023 or in near future for the reasons being attributed to BJP -led Central Government. Opposition Congress, National Conference, PDP, Aam Aadmi Party and others are accusing the BJP of intentionally delaying the Assembly polls to keep enjoying power in Jammu and Kashmir through indirect rule and thus depriving J&K people of a democratically elected Government. According to Harsh Dev Singh of AAP, prolonged Central rule in J&K is a negation of the constitutional guarantees enshrined in the Constitution of India and also various Supreme Court rulings.
Even as Election Commission of India is the authority to take the call on conducting Assembly polls in J&K and security situation in the Union Territory too has improved a lot in comparison to the times when earlier elections were held here, BJP -led Central Government seems in a fix over possible results if a popular Government comes to power in the Union Territory. For BJP, J&K is not mere one of the States or Union Territories but the battlefield of asserting its `nationalist’ ideology that had led to abrogation of Article 370 and 35A.
Despite having a stronghold in Hindu majority areas of Jammu region, the saffron party is not confident of coming to power in J&K even if it forms a post-poll alliance with `friendly’ parties like People’s Conference, Apni Party, Azad Party or a few others, which have apparently failed to attract considerable number of voters so far. On the other hand, National Conference seems too strong to get cornered in Kashmir Valley as well as in some Muslim dominated pockets of Jammu. Even as political base of both PDP and Congress has eroded to a great extent in the last two years while Aam Aadmi Party has still to make inroads, all these parties will happily join hands to support NC against BJP.
Allowing NC like parties to form a Government in the Union Territory will certainly jeopardize BJP’ earlier moves on J&K as well as its future plans for restoring normalcy here by enforcing its formula for peace, which may include another division of the erstwhile State by carving out one more Union Territory in near future. BJP cannot afford to let its J&K oriented initiatives go in vain as such development would dent the party’s macho image and severely damage its political prospects at pan-India level. Hence Assembly elections in the Union Territory are unlikely to be held in the near future or at least till the ruling BJP is convinced of forming its Government here.
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