What’s Brewing

Lt Gen P S Mehta (Retd)
What’s brewing in Kashmir valley? Across the length and breadth of India everyone is trying to assess the prevailing calm and the uncertainty in the air. What will be outcome or the outburst once the dust settles? The masterstroke delivered from Delhi has not only left the inhabitants of the valley shell shocked and bewildered, but has also abrogated the ‘Instrument of Accession’ and rendered it Null and Void. A cerebral and a well conceived Political Manoeuver that has with one stroke crippled the call for Azaadi as also reorganized the state into two UTs, besides the future course of actions of both – terrorists and Pakistan. This clean cut has segregated Ladakh as a standalone UT comprising those areas which have been gifted or claimed by China, which can be settled with China separately by the GoI. While the Jammu & Kashmir UT is now set aside to leverage the logic of reclaiming / recapturing areas of POJK under illegal occupation of Pakistan since 1947- ( Chambb – Bhimber – Mendar – Palandari – Rawlakot – Bhag – Muzaffarabad – Gilgit – Baltistan) outside the interest or influence of China. The mainstream political parties (NC& PDP) have also been rendered dissolved. While Pakistan has been vociferous since 04 Aug 2019, the Awaam and the political establishments are zapped and shocked to fathom what to do next. What’s brewing in their minds is to be assessed?
It is likely that some portions of Awaam who are radicals (Jamaties, Hurriyat and Separatists’) along with some confused and influenced sections of common public, will certainly look for opportunities to protest, raise voices and even resort to stone pelting etc, while the terrorists will get reorganized and commence targeting the SFs and soft targets. Presently these actions are unlikely for the fear of heavy troop presence and the restricted vehicular movement in the hinter land. Technically speaking militancy has not come to an end with this manoeuver. The terrorists are bound to reorganize themselves, even wait for their cadre strength to improve by expected infiltration from across the LC (POK) and lie low to conserve their strength to live and fight another day (probably the summers of 2020) in a consolidated manner
Is Kashmir a political issue or a military issue? This remains to be finally analyzed to undertake the next move. Within the bounds of the country (India) it was a political issue revolving around the Instrument of Accession (whether temporary or permanent), the special status and the aspirations of the people at large. This political issue has been settled for good and put to rest by the ‘Political Masterstroke’ made by the GoI. Kashmir was not and has never been a political issue between two neighboring states. Any issue which is bilateral in nature – especially Kashmir between India and Pakistan was and has remained a Diplomatic Issue. That unfortunately has failed to be resolved by initiatives undertaken by prominent leaders viz ZA Bhutto – Indira Gandhi and Parvez Mushraff – Manmohan diplomatically despite high level talks and agreements’. Therefore beyond the ultimate political step unleashed by the GoI there remains no more political content or leverage for the future.
Thus to take the narrative beyond the LC it would now come under the purview of military domain and not political domain any longer. Pakistan will never agree to vacate POK under any circumstances be it diplomatically or under duress of the international community. Thus to get back the areas of J&K under Pakistani occupation there remains only one method- Military action. Possibility of such an action is bright, only if Delhi exhibits the required Political Will and Political Directive to the Indian Forces to capture POK. A conventional military offensive will always be highly justified to the world community since Pakistani forces had entered areas of J&K in 1947 by deceit and by disruption/breach of the agreement of partition covered by the Independence Act 1947 where Pakistan and India were signatories. Pakistan flouted the same by clandestine intrusion with a view to take Kashmir by force. Therefore a conventional military offensive is fully possible, viable and the next logical step to put an end to this menace once and for all to bring everlasting peace in the region. Such an action will also be the ultimate step to finally call and prove Pakistan’s nuclear bluff, having tested their stance during the surgical strikes and the Balakote air strikes where there was no mention of nuclear response, but only show of fear and bewilderment by the Pakistani Jaunta.
This analysis is joined by varied threads gained through a wide ranging interactions leading to profound appreciation of the wishes of the people of Kashmir – ‘Azaadi’ – or the desire to getting freedom from being prisoners in their own land. Those people who were decent, gullible and fooled by the greedy and self centered local politicians for the last 72 years. From its inception Pakistan and the State of J&K were parts of the Sikh Empire of Maharaja Ranjit Singh. Kashmir was never a part of Pakistan; it always was a part of the State under Maharaja Gulab Singh and Hari Singh until the partition of India. J&K State was formally integrated with the UoI by the Accession Instrument. Thus by both the Independence Act and the State composition Kashmir was never a part of Pakistan as brought out by the Defense Minster Mr. Rajnath Singh recently. Pakistan has no locus standi over Kashmir. Armed insurgency and Azaadi (slogan) were actually initiated by POKs UK based Diaspora in the early 1980s on the behest of ISI. These criminals had kidnapped and murdered Ravindra Mhatre the Indian Counselor in Birmingham in 1982. In 1983 when JKLF had spread wings in the valley, the POK based activists under the leadership of Amanullah Khan led a march to force entry into Kashmir by violating the LC seeking Azaadi and not merger with Pakistan. They were stopped by Pak military where 27 of them were killed.
All along since Oct 1947 Pakistan has tried to enter into J&K wherein it followed the concept of tribal’s leading the intrusion – be it in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999 (Kargil war) and have always failed. The curtain has been finally lifted – Azaadi no longer remains valid since the State has been split. Now remains for India to step into POK and retake our areas under their occupation for the complete assimilation of J&K into UoI. There is a general feeling among the strategists in India and J&K that how wewould be able control the areas once captured. This needs to be dispelled since the masses occupying these areas will be forced to uplift and move backwards across the existing IB between India and Pakistan (The Radcliff Line) and settled as refugees in Pakistan. Wars have always displaced people like the West Pakistani Refugees (WPR) and the Rohingias. It is for the respective Governments to settle them into their legitimate jurisdiction and boundaries when the war ends. It took GoI 72 years to settle WPRs languishing in Jammu province. I am not propagating or mongering war, I am only putting the cards on the table for the GoI India to take the next logical and sequential step to resolve Kashmir Issue for Good.
(The author is the former Strike Corps Commander)
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