Prof. M K Bhat
Election 2024 is turning into a point of great discussion for politicians, strategists, media and general public with each passing day, and some have even declared 2023 – a semifinal, as 9 states are likely to go to elections in 2023. A plethora of questions like:Who will wear the crown? Who will challenge Narendra Modi in Lok Sabha elections? Will opposition come closer and unitedly defeat the BJP? Will BJP outdo others? Will it be an election between one V/S many? will there be no opposition unity and BJP will have an easy cakewalk? What will be the status of different opposition parties and who will lead them if they get united? Will there be post poll alliances? What will be the common minimum program for opposition if they decide to come together? Will India get a coalition govt.? etc. The answer to all these pertinent questions can be understood on the bases of three parameters first the recent election out comes, second the prevalent position of political parties in the country thirdly other contemporary issues. Let us deal these things in detail
An inkling about the mental makeup of people regarding 2024 can be attained from the recently held elections in Dec.2022 and Feb.2023. While the results in North East can be termed as a good beginning for BJP in 2023, yet the three small hilly state elections can’t be held as an indicator for the next year elections but they definitely carry their importance for 2024. It may be worthwhile to mention here that the party was almost invisible in this area prior to 2014. This raises certain issues as to what happened in last nine years that made BJP a major player in North East despite being labelled as anti-Christian party. These elections in states with Christian majority broke the myth that BJP is confined to Hindi heartland only. It also emboldened the BJP cadre to strike with double force in the coming elections. It has signaled that there are no takers of opposition in its present form.
In December 2022 elections, opposition failed to cultivate anti- incumbency in Gujarat where elections showed no anti-incumbency despite seven terms of BJP rule. The tsunami of Modi swayed the wholeof Gujarat and clearly stated that others stand nowhere in front of him. The election results were not in favor of BJP in Himachal Pradesh but the difference in vote percentage between the winner and loser was just 1%. In Delhi Municipal elections no doubt AAP got majority but the poll percentage of BJP had increased by two percentage points. In Bihar bi elections the voter clearly rejected the RJD/JD candidate and thereby hinted Nitish Kumar to concentrate on Bihar. The biggest miracle happened in Uttar Pradesh bi elections where SP was able to retain its fort for Dimple Yadav and got defeated in Muslim majority district of Rampur.It smashed the myth that Muslims desist from voting BJP and certified that the BJP’s appeal to Pasmanda (poor) Muslims has gone in the right direction. BJP candidate won by defeating the protégé of strong SP leader Azam khan. The BJP contested elections on the face of Modi, if they retained their vote percentage despite inflation, this hints to the strong appeal of being brand Modi in elections.
The major inference from these two elections can be held as 1) BJP has increased its influence in minorities 2) Except rhetoric, Opposition could not cultivate anti- incumbency in Gujarat – a big state. 3) the BJP vote bank is least disenchanted by the working of the party while as opposition is fighting amongst itself for minority votes and even tried to showcase themselves as super secularists with no other agenda at their hand.
The opposition has no leader with acceptance across the opposition political parties and every opposition leader aspires to be in the hot seat by hook or crook, Nitish Kumar pulled back by KCR, Mamta projects herself and Arvind Kejriwal holds that the coming election will be between him and Modi, Rahul is ready on the launch pad after Bharat Jodo yatra and Farooq Abdullah proposed Stalin. They have no common agenda as yet. In short, unity among them seems a distant dream at present.Besides most of them are confined to one or two states.Many of them bear common vote banks,this has complicated their unity as they struggle to hold Muslim Vote bank by being super secularists this obviously gets reaction from the other side and adds to the vote bank of BJP. The trust deficit amongst opposition is quite visible and they have failed to add to their vote bank,on the other hand BJP has created a big vote bank over the years by exposing the anti-majority deeds of the opposition in last seventy years.
BJP has also got a strong leader to lead from the front, his acceptance within the country and globally has increased tremendously in post 2014 era. Besides people have seen the coalition era and its complicacies, they don’t want to get in the fuss of indecisiveness. The stature of Modi has grown more after certain bold decisions he undertook; mention can be made of surgical strikes, abrogation of article 370 and 35A, construction of Ram Mandir etc. It is in the mind of people that the interests of the country are safe in his hands. The G-20 and other international happenings has further swelled his stature. He is a good orator, understands the pulse of his audience and connects easily with them.Modi today stands as the world’s most popular leader with an approval rating of 78% as per US based consulting firm Morning Consult, revealed on 4th Feb. 2023. Modi’s humble background and no deceptive secularism to appease others too is contributing to his vote bank. Modi since day one has stuck to his faith without any disrespect to other faiths while as opposition is still stuck in its past and their belief that religious gimmickry will get them votes is cutting no ice any more. Their Muslim vote bank too understands now, that wearing a skull cap or organizing Iftar party for a few has no impact on the community.
Another thing with BJP is that it is being supported by dedicated RSS cadre at the booth level, while as the enthusiasm in opposition Cadres dampens if they have to fight elections under common agenda.Secondly most of the opposition parties are out of power so the morale of cadre is already at its low.
When opposition parties have yet to start a common platform for 2024, BJP has started its campaign mode well in time by first concentrating on 144 Lok Sabha seats which it lost in 2019 and has begun its booth management.
Lastly current happenings too will show their colour in 2024, heaps of cash recovered from Mamta’s Minister, failing law and order situation in Punjab, Money laundering cases in Delhi against AAP, Delhi liquor scam with a reach upto Telangana, Home minister of Maharashtra in Jail for extortion, money laundering case in Maharashtra, involvement of congress in Herald case, land for job scam in Bihar etc. None of those accused provide proof of their innocence rather accuse BJP for being biased towards them. This accusation without authentic proof of innocence tacitly conveys their acceptance of being corrupt, and gives BJP ample chance to lament that every accused behaves in the same manner.
Who will get crowned in 2024 depends on voters but the ball at present is certainly in the court of BJP.
(The author is Professor (M.A.I.T) Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi)
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