Col J P Singh, Retd
As the polling nears, spectre of hung Parliament appears. If we look back at the last election, the fear of hotch-potch Govt at the centre in 2009 actually worked in favour of UPA. The fear of a patch up coalition that could not have given a good Govt pushed the fence sitter to vote for Congress giving it 206 seats and legitimacy to head a coalition. Such apprehensions abound this time too but it favouring descending Congress is unthinkable. Congress led UPA II is marred with plethora of wrong doings. It got strictures from judiciary and constitutional bodies all the way during its rule. Public resentment against the govt grew high when Anna Hazare fasted and led an anti corruption agitation in the capital. Congress looked to be losing will to govern after covering half the way. Coming under attacks, it became defensive and ineffective. The net result was dithering leadership, deserting partners, rising inflation, corruption and skewed development.
Having gone through similar situations in the past, public lost faith in the weak kneed Govt. Hence strong leadership and stable govt became the political buzz word. Today strong Govt is considered as one of the pre-conditions for all round development. A weak and meek coalition or a front can stymie policy decisions and impair institutions of governance. If a strong leader does not head a stable Govt at Delhi after this election, we will hear the same story of corruption and indecisiveness again and veteran anti corruption crusader Anna will not be able to rescue us any more. It will be now or never because of various reasons considered here.
On the eve of this year’s Republic Day address, the President of India, without naming any party or leader said that winning election does not give one licence to flirt with illusions. Populist anarchy, he said, is no substitute to governance and added that govts are not charity shops and false promises breed disillusionment which further breed rage targeted at the people who are in power. He exhorted voters to vote responsibly in the coming general election and elect a Govt which can provide stability. He cautioned that a fractured mandate could be catastrophic. Most of the speech of the widely respected statesman President was ‘rap on the knuckles’ of those leaders who spread disenchantment in the society and at the same time a wise counsel for the rest of us.
Since Presidents address was directed at you and me, I scratched my head to understand the deep meaning in his statement. He himself has been part of UPA I & II. He has been through the contradictions in coalition and consequent effects on governance. He has also seen the world and sleepy China galloping towards growth at an unprecedented pace. Though difficult to dissect his genius mind, yet my understanding considers it Indian predominant role, if we want, in the 21st Century which the economists have granted to Asia. It is time that India becomes a useful partner in this phenomenon of Asian development. Economists assigned 19th Century to Europe, 20th to West and 21st to Asia. For Asia to grow economically, strong and stable govts in Asian democracies are essential. China is leading in growth and governance. We have no choice but to be on its heels to play a constructive role in the Asian phenomenon. That is probably what President meant by signalling stable Govt. Should we have one more ineffective coalition like UPA II, Asian phenomenon will be in China leaving us where we are today. Hence it becomes clear to me that if we have to become an Asian power, we have to have a strong and stable Govt at the centre. When I look around, I find that it is BJP alone today which can provide a stable Govt with strong leadership. I am sure the economists will interpret it more lucidly than me. To apply it to Indian reality, they must educate public.
Given anti UPA mood and anger against the Congress, a coalition led by Congress is unthinkable. CPM’s initiatives on the formation of Third Front, Mamta’s initiative of Federal Front and Kejriwals’s anti Congress and anti BJP Front were doing the rounds in the recent past. The idea of pre poll 11 party Third Front ran into rough weathers with AIADMK, AGP and BJD opting out and the Federal Front tumbled after Anna Hazare’s absence from Mamta Banerjee’s 12th March Ram Lila Maidan rally. Kejriwal’s chaotic diatribes against every one else is slowing his momentum particularly after failing to become joint opposition candidate in Varanasi. These are few example of others falling even before standing and Modi not only surviving but thriving too. Even though political pundits have written off Congress but some regional satraps are betting on it. They still talk of going with the secular forces and continue holding ground. Thus the overall spectre of a fragmented electoral verdict portends bad days and revitalises serious thinking. Anything can happen in Indian politics. Ambitions of regional leaders and inability of Congress to be a serious contender leaves BJP far ahead of others in the race for 7 Race Course Road. With the economy in trouble, hopes are high that a stable govt and strong leadership will pull the nation out of economic sloth and tackle corruption, insecurity, inflation and joblessness effectively. Hence it is a paramount obligation of BJP to come out of communal mindset and adopt a realistic economic agenda to attract voters for giving it a stable govt. India’s electoral landscape from North to South and East and West with nationalist spread, which Congress enjoys, is fading. The vacuum can be filled by the BJP should it get a chance.
Veteran journalist Vinod Mehta of Outlook, an extremely vocal Modi detractor says that writing on the wall is clear, in capital letters, “Modi will lead an NDA govt on May 16. Only divine intervention can stop him”. NDTV survey conducted through Hansa Research Group places NDA at 281. Another noted journalist, author and former Congress MP M J Akbar says ‘Modi’s leadership is essential for the country’. Coming from renowned journalists and reputed national channel confirms Modi’s acceptance.
With entry of ‘Chai Pe Charcha’, Modi is the topic of discussion everywhere. NDTV anchor Barkha Dutt’ s ‘tea talk’ is being replicated in the road side tea stalls. Disagree if you may, but in every social, informal, religious and obituary functions, politics is discussed where Modi invariably takes the centre stage. Even where there is no BJP, there is extreme thirst for good governance. This is what unites voters and cuts across traditional divide such as party, caste, religion or region. Only voters apprehensive of BJP and not yet decided are the Muslim but most of them are disillusioned with the Congress. Minority also sees Modi representing good Govt as seen in Gujarat which has generated economic growth and job opportunities and that is their aspiration as well. Electorate is looking into the future. Identity is losing ground to the economics. When Modi talks of development it makes sense because he has delivered it in Gujarat. He thus fits in Indian and Asian growth phenomenon.
One thing which is hitherto standing out in the BJP election campaign is mellowing down of communalism rhetoric. Seeing the new aspirational mood of the nation, youths in particular, Modi has suitably modified his script which is more suggestive of development, good governance and nationalism. By re-branding BJP as pro development, he has attracted secular allies which brighten chances of stability. India needs stability not for BJP, Modi or Rajnath but for economic power and prosperity. Let us give it a trial.
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