Nitya Chakraborty
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is attending the summit of the expanded BRICS block at Tatarstan city of Kazan in Russia on October 22 to 24 to be hosted by President Putin. This summit is of crucial importance for both the Indian PM as also the President Putin. Narendra Modi is attending it in a situation when he is facing diplomatic as well as political embarrassment at the hands of the western powers led by the USA over the Government agency’s alleged involvement with the killing of a Canadian national in Canada and also with the assassination attempt on another in USA. He has to get out of it and he needs friendly help from non-western nations.
The open positioning of the US favouring Canada despite the country being the strategic partner of India in QUAD must have hurt the Indian PM who hoped high on Indo-US relationship and deserted the Global South in the recent years to endorse the western position on Israel in the current war, causing disappointment to the member nations of Global South. Distanced by India’s allies of the developing world and rebuked by the western friends on Canada issue, Indian Prime Minister will be in the BRICS summit looking for a role in the emerging world order.
As regards President Putin, after a long gap, he is hosting this summit in the context of the Ukraine war, sanctions by the West and the indictment by the International Crime Court. Russia has withstood the sanctions in the last two years, economy has prospered. President Putin through this summit, will try to show to the west as also all the nations in the globe that Russia remains as a super power and it will remain so.
At the Tatarstan summit, apart from the original five members Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa, five more new members – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) will be attending for the first time. Apart, President Putin has invited more than two dozen other countries that have applied for or are considering membership of this expanding bloc which is now the largest bloc in terms of economic strength. The theme for this summit is’ Strengthening Multilateralism For Just Global Development And Security’.
What is significant is that this BRICS summit 2024 will assume more importance than the coming G-20 summit in Brazil which includes both western nations as also the leading developing nations. In 2023, India hosted the G-20 summit. The 2024 BRICS summit might witness the attendance of more than thirty countries including the invitees and this will be the biggest platform in which the multilateralism and global issues, especially the west Asian war and the Ukraine war will be discussed. Most of these nations have taken position against Israel during discussions in United Nations. Itwill be embarrassing for Narendra Modi to find him isolated on the Israel issue. India’s last abstention on the resolution voted in UN general assembly against the Israeli settlers in Gaza, has been widely resented by these members.
Prime Minister will be in the summit city for two days on October 22 and 23. Apart from conference deliberations, three bilateral meetings are very important. First with the Chinese President Xi Jinping, then President Putin and the third most important bilateral talks will be with the President of Iran. Though the programmes for the bilateral talks have not all been officially announced, it is quite likely that all these meetings will be held because the discussions are important for both sides.
As regards China, Prime Minister Modi will be getting a chance to put the Indo-China bilateral relations in proper perspective focusing on the border issue which is still an irritant blocking the process of growth of bilateral relations. There is a communication gap between the two and both the leading Asian nations are carrying a stigma which goes back to late 1950s.The world has changed fundamentally since then. Now is the time to look at the bilateral relations from a new angle of cooperation with competition. A small beginning can take place at the Modi-Xi meeting if both heads assert the requisite political will.
As regards Russia, President Putin has remained a trusted friend of India carrying the legacy of the Soviet period on relationship with India. That India is in a better position in 2024 in terms of the balance of payment and inflationary pressures, is mostly due to the cheap crude supplies by Russia in the last two years. Indian Prime Minister has also shown his gratitude to President Putin earlier. But this is not enough, there is big scope for raising India-Russia cooperation to a much higher level taking into account the requirements of both the countries.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to do some rethinking on the twists and turns of Indian diplomacy in the recent years directed by him and the PMO marginalizing the experienced officials of the External Affairs Ministry. Has it served India better in terms of its standing in the world community? India has virtually abandoned SAARC. The organization of South Asian nations with huge potential is inactive due to India-Pakistan tensions. Pakistan now wants to take the lead in reviving SAARC. If that happens and others respond, what will be the stature of India in South Asian diplomacy?
As regards SCO meeting, India for some time, did not take any active role. This month, the foreign minister Dr. S Jaishankar was sent to attend with the official position that no bilateral talks would be held. Even two small conversations between the foreign ministers of the two countries opened the window for dialogue, if not door. Just imagine what would have happened if there were a full-fledged bilateral meeting between the two PMs. Former Pakistan PM Nawaj Sharief correctly said that this was a good beginning-one should not always look at the past.
In the first year of his third term, Prime Minister has a chance to reorient India’s foreign policy to suit the country’s best interests and the new realities of the global diplomacy. The BRICS meeting next week can be the starting point of that. The renewal can be followed up at the G-20 summit in Brazil in November this year. India is a part of Global South and this nation has the standing to be the leader. India can negotiate with the western nations on the basis of its intrinsic strength. India’s priorities are BRICS, SCO and SAARC – G-20 comes after and QUAD the last. Hope that prioritization begins with the Kazan summit. (IPA)
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