Farooq Ganderbali
There is a move afoot to reopen dialogue with Pakistan. It is being argued that being a close neighbour, India cannot but talk to Pakistan. There is no choice, the argument goes. There may be some truth in these arguments but this is certainly not the right time to shake hands with Islamabad. There are some compelling reasons not to, at least at this juncture.
The most compelling reason for India not to make any move towards a possible rapprochement with Pakistan is that the latter has not made any attempt to abandon its treacherous policy of using terrorist groups to damage India. Terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) are not only enjoying the state patronage quite openly but also are continuing to run terrorist training camps in different parts of Pakistan.
The LeT was responsible for the terrorist mayhem in Mumbai in November 2008. India had cut off all contacts with Pakistan blaming the terror group operating in Pakistan with state patronage for the carnage. Pakistan first denied any involvement and then reluctantly detained half a dozen and more of LeT cadres. Their trial is still far from over. India believes that the trial has been deliberately delayed by the state agencies because the political and military leadership of the country are reluctant to punish the proxies which are key instruments of their policy towards India.
After the Mumbai attacks, India stated that unless Pakistan punishes LeT and its leadership, including Hafiz Saeed, and speed up the trial of the detained terrorists, there was no point in talking anything else. Pakistan first promised to move against the terrorist groups and then quietly dropped the idea. The strategy was to drag the issue so long that it becomes a `non-issue`. Within months of the terrorist attack, Pakistani leaders began arguing that the dialogue could not be held hostage to terrorist groups. This argument began to find an echo among the Indian academics and political class. Seven years down the line, these voices have gained enough traction to force even a strong leader like Prime Minister Narendra Modi to rethink about the dialogue.
The argument for reopening dialogues centres around essentially two points—that Pakistan is too close a neighbour to be ignored for long, and that it is a country with nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s proximity to India is a geographical and political reality and there is nothing we can do to change it. But to argue that India cannot live without talking to Pakistan is not very convincing.
Let us assume that India has starting talking to Pakistan. The single question we need to ask is –How is it India going to benefit from this move? Will it prevent terrorism emanating from Pakistan? Will cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir end? Will LeT and JeM be dismantled? Will Pakistan stop using terrorist groups as instruments of policy against India? The answer to all these questions is simply a No! Even the most fervent Pakistan-friend in India cannot give a convincing response to these questions other than in a muted and doubtful response.
Now, if India refuses to engage Pakistan in a dialogue, the likely outcomes are not dissimilar either. The terrorist groups will continue to operate freely, and pose equally serious threat to India. The state will not give up its jihadi policy.
Given the above, there must be an altogether different incentive for India to talk to Pakistan. Could this incentive be economic? Let us explore this also. In the best scenario, India and Pakistan can only benefit both in short and long term of the latter becomes a energy and transport linking the sub-continent with the wider, more lucrative resources and markets in the west. This is a possibility which cannot be discarded easily. But for this to happen, the state of Pakistan has to restructure itself, organically. It cannot remain a military state nor a state which claims to be defender of Islam, especially Sunni Islam.
Unfortunately, this is a wishful thinking and a sovereign state cannot afford to base its strategic policies on wishes and prayers. The move to talk with Pakistan is one such effort and is bound to fail.
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