Anil Anand
Where does the significance of the Assam, Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu assembly elections lay? It is always significant that who wins the election but these three states have an added interest in who wins or loses.
The common denominator in this round of elections is that BJP is on one side of the divide with a different opponent in different state to contend with. The most significant factor that makes this election even more important and interesting is that barring Assam, the BJP is charting in hitherto unknown territories which it desperately wishes to electorally capture for various reasons.
The first and obvious reason is that it wishes to continue its uninterrupted winning streak that had begun seven years back. And adding new territories or states to the BJP kitty would be added advantage for Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, and a feather in his cap.
The second reason is ideological although the saffron party itself has lost its ideological moorings in order to achieve bigger goals in power politics. Still, it has embarked on course to taking further strides by taking head-on the two socio-political thoughts, Left in Kerala (directly) and West Bengal and Dravidian philosophy in Tamil Nadu.
It remains a fact that Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are the three big states situated in diverse zones of the country where the BJP under Narendra Modi-Amit Shah has not been able to capture power. So the need to do so in order to keep their victory juggernaut moving unhindered.
There comes the significance of victory even for the opposition reflected in an observation made by former Union Finance Minister and veteran BJP leader, Mr Yashwant Sinha. He recently joined Trinmool Congress and has since been appointed its vice-president and member of the party’s national executive by its chief Ms Mamta Banerjee. Need to stop this juggernaut or the ‘Ashavmedh yagna” started by the BJP, was how he explained the need of his joining the Trinmool Congress.
So the battlelines have been drawn with BJP versus Trinmool Congress and Congress-left combo in West Bengal, and with DMK-Congress combine in Tamil Nadu. Of course, in Kerala BJP is pitted against two alliance groups- the Left Front and the Congress-led UDF.
But from both the BJP and the opposition perspective all eyes are riveted on West Bengal. The fact that BJP performed surprisingly well in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, riding on the persistent Narendra Modi wave, winning 18 seats with a vote percentage of 40.64 against Trinmool Congress’ 22 seats and 43.69 per cent vote share, has led to the party fathoming its chances in the assembly elections as well and has pulled all stops to corner the irrepressible Trinmool Congress chief, Ms Mamta Banerjee. The billion dollar question is whether the BJP be able to tame her to repeat the 2019 performance.
Given this backdrop and knowing fully-well that they have very bleak chances of victory in Kerala and Tamil Nadu the BJP leadership is going all guns blazing to create electoral history in West Bengal. If that happens and the party improves its performance in Kerala and Tamil Nadu as well, it will come as a big boost to the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as it would open new vistas for them to compensate any loss in the areas where the party has either reached saturation stage or could lose ground due to anti-incumbency factor.
The BJP must have realised by now that it is up against a formidable opponent in West Bengal in Ms Banerjee who has a proven track-record of being a street fighter. After all she single-handedly ended the three decade rule of the CPM-led third front. She is as charismatic in West Bengal as Mr Modi can be in any part of the country. On her turf she is one up over him in terms of charisma. The one area where Trinmool Congress is lagging behind BJP is, of course, the money power.
Can the money power and well oiled backup machinery ensure BJP’s victory? The available indications at this juncture suggest that despite being under BJP fire from all sides, a wheel chair ridden Mamata Banerjee is unfazed despite series of desertions from her party encouraged by the BJP strategists to create a psychological scenario that Trinmool Congress is a sinking ship and that all her colleagues are deserting her.
Trinmool Congress victory is crucial to any future endeavour at opposition unity to checkmate BJP. In case Ms Banerjee gets a third successive term defeating the Modi-Shah might, it will truly be a morale booster for the elusive opposition unity.
There is no doubt that a victory in assembly elections will catapult her to become a key face of the anti-BJP alliance for the next Lok Sabha elections. In order to prevent this situation from emerging the BJP would have to emulate its 2019 Lok Sabha performance if not improve upon that. It will be a tall order for the party as it is an assembly and not Lok Sabha election, and that BJP has not projected any chief ministerial candidate to take on Ms Banerjee.
A Trinmool Congress victory in West Bengal coupled with DMK-led opposition front in Tamil Nadu and either Left Front or the Congress-led UDF in Kerala emerging victorious will certainly be a trigger for the opposition parties to come together. As the reports suggest the BJP has been struggling to find candidates in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and that the party is faced with serious internal rumblings in West Bengal on account of ” old versus new” leaders and workers clash which has resulted due to large number of defectors or outsiders having been given party mandate.
The BJP focus is clearly on West Bengal and so would be that of the opposition and political observers. As the election campaign picks up all eyes would be on Mr Modi as he remains to be the BJP’s trump card. He is slated to address series of rallies in the state to counter the Mamta Banerjee influence.
There are diverse views about the impact of Left-Congress alliance on the poll outcome. One view is that the triangular contest will ultimately help BJP. However, there is a feeling that the alliance was mooted to prevent the entire opposition space being occupied by the BJP in case of a Trinmool-Left-Congress combine taking shape, and that it was done with the tacit understanding of senior opposition leaders and even the Trinmool Congress circles.
Will the Modi magic work or will the street-fighter Banerjee be able stop the Modi juggernaut remain to be seen?
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