Brij Bhardwaj
The Bihar polls for the State Assembly to be held this year will provide an answer to the crucial question of whether the dominance of the BJP in the Hindi Heartland will continue, or whether there is hope for the Opposition alliance INDIA, led by the Congress Party. There is doubt about the outcome of the polls in Bihar due to repeated changes. This has happened because State Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is popularly known as “Paltu Ram”, holds the balance between the two groups and keeps on changing his position, walking in and out with ease from one side to the other.
The result is that he continues to occupy the office of Chief Minister. In the Assembly, both groups NDA and INDIA have equal strength and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the Janata Dal leader, provides the numbers to make a majority to rule. Over the years, his position has weakened and incumbency is catching up with him, and it is being asked whether he will be able to play the balancing act in coming times.
This peculiar position in Bihar is also a result of the fact that the State which has witnessed the start of many movements which changed the political scene in the country in the last decade voted largely on the basis of caste in State elections. BJP, the dominant party in the NDA, has the support of upper castes among Hindus. The RJD, the driving force in the Opposition block, has the support of Yadavs, as well as other OBCs and Muslims. Nitish Kumar drew support from more backward castes and women who backed him for introducing prohibition in the State.
The question being asked is, with Janata Dal support getting reduced, who will gain? The BJP hopes that many of them will join their camp. From the Opposition side, the Congress Party, which has nominated Mr. Rajesh Kumar as State party chief, hopes they will attract members of oppressed castes and thus become an important player in the INDIA camp. They have also undertaken a march as part of their election campaign.
In the ruling camp NDA, the Union Government has helped by giving them many projects in the current Union budget. State Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is also chief of his party, has decided to bring his son into the party fold to project him as a face of the youth to carry forward his legacy. The political pundits wonder if this would work because he is a political novice and his entry is coming rather late.
BJP so far is projecting the name of Nitish Kumar as future Chief Minister, but keeping in mind the Maharashtra example and the fact that BJP is expected to win more seats as compared to Chief Minister’s Party, chances of change cannot be ruled out. Besides the two main contestants in the poll, NDA and INDIA, there are many small groups and political parties who also may get a few seats.
The BJP advantage is a well tested formidable election machine which has turned tables in many States. Its disadvantage is that they do not have any prominent face to be projected as Chief Minister. The RJD is being led by Tejaswi Yadav, son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, who functioned as Deputy Chief Minister when Nitish Kumar was in opposition camp, and is being projected as future Chief Minister. He is rated as a frontrunner in the choice of Chief Minister by polls held by national newspapers. But he has not completely come out of the shadow of his father, who as State Chief Minister was convicted in a corruption case and whose family is also being investigated on charges of corruption from when he was Railway Minister at the Centre.
Both sides have committed voters, but victory will come to one who is able to catch the floating votes. They are women who were won over by Nitish Kumar with schemes like prohibition, cycles for girls in schools, and reservation in village Panchayat and local bodies. The RJD campaign is based on the record of providing jobs when in power which has a lot of appeal in a state like Bihar where unemployment is high. Bihar is an especially important state as it sends 40 members to Lok Sabha, and its State polls have a sizeable impact across the country’s political landscape.
Follow our WhatsApp channel
