Straight Talk
K B Jandial
The first ever election for 90-seat J&K UT Assembly has given a decisive mandate to the NC led alliance which has assumed the power of the truncated Jammu & Kashmir on 16th October with much interest and commitment. Much water has flown in Jhelum and Tawi rivers since June 2018 when the President Rule was imposed after resignation of Mehbooba Govt, and subsequent historic constitutional changes, leading to political upheaval. But seemingly, both the diverse regions with different mandates, overcoming the gulf of mutual mistrust and widening gap, are looking forward to rapprochement, reconciliatory and harmonious political order and good governance despite limited powers that are available to a Govt in Union Territory as per the Constitution, and more specifically the J&K Reorganization Act, 2019 as amended from time to time.
The fiercely contested Assembly election has thrown up a polarized verdict, revealing a sharp regional divide; valley backed the NC alliance and Jammu stood with BJP. The result witnessed a tsunami of NC in Kashmir, winning 35 out of 47 seats and BJP’s dominance in Hindu majority Jammu region bagging 29 out of 43 seats. The traditionally seen ‘secular’ Congress failed to win any of Hindu-majority seats resulting in an entirely Muslim MLA roster. Similarly, none of BJP’s Muslim candidates could win including Paharis who were bestowed the benefit of ST status by Modi Govt. In this polarized scenario, the NC stands out as the only ‘secular’ party that managed to win seats in both ‘Hindu Jammu’ and ‘Muslim Kashmir’.
While Lotus failed to bloom in ‘Muslim’ Kashmir, it got a better Muslim vote. According to an analysis of votes polled by different parties, done by Daily Excelsior, BJP candidates on four seats came in second out of 19 seats contested in Kashmir, securing 5.8 % of popular votes. The BJP can take solace as the party emerged top with vote share of 25.64 % in UT followed by JKNC with 23.43% votes, both improving their vote share by 2 % over 2014 election. Despite this, BJP seat tally was restricted to only 29 against 42 of NC which had lesser popular votes. The INC could get only 6 seats, PDP 3 seats, CPI(M), People’s Conference and Aam Aadmi Party one seat each and 7 by independent candidates.
While the spiteful electoral fight is over, it would take a little more time for the dust to settle down and focus to be shifted to the actual business of governance. The sooner the parties forget the malicious and unpleasant utterances against each other during the election, the better would be for the people of J&K who are looking forward to getting their daily problems addressed soon. Notwithstanding the extremely good job done by the LG’s administration in its five years’ rule, it is a fact that however good a bureaucratic Govt may be, it is no substitute for a political dispensation. It has inherent disadvantages.
Facing the challenge of making a cabinet with equal representation to both regions and dominant religions, Omar’s task was eased as all Hindu Independent MLAs supported the NC alliance, one of them getting a ministerial berth in a small 6-member. But a minor hiccup arose when 6-member Congress stayed out of the Omar cabinet, extending support from outside. With three vacancies still available in the cabinet, they may join at later stage. One thing is clear that the pressure for two berths may not work as Omar has a majority without Congress. A strong 29-member BJP legislative group representing the dominant Hindu areas pose a serious challenge to Omar Govt.
The initial positive interviews of Omar Abdullah and formation of a small cabinet with equal representation to both the regions have opened the doors of goodwill to Jammu. By making his party MLA from Sunderbani as Dy CM and offering the post of the Dy Speaker to BJP is a huge gesture as BJP in its all ruled States has not followed this past practice. Picking up a Hindu senior bureaucrat as his Principal Secretary and immediately visiting Jammu after assuming the charge of the UT are positive messaging to Jammu. These actions have been well-received in Jammu, demonstrating a desire to bridge the regional divide. While the people of Jammu too have responded well to his becoming the Chief Minister, Omar is purportedly sore on receiving many congratulatory messages from those who had not bothered to know his well-being when he was out of power. Looking much more politically mature, he should not take offence to these messages and felicitations as “chardtey ko salaam” is a time-tested adage.
However, there are potential political fault lines between NC (INDIA) and BJP/ Modi which can escalate confrontation between Omar Govt and Modi Govt. The NC is committed to its agenda including restoration of Article 370 and renaming some historic peaks to Islamic names which is offensive to Hindus, BJP, and Modi Govt. Is it essential to rename Shankaracharya Hill and Hari Parbat? While Articles 370 & 35A cannot be restored, renaming Shankaracharya Hill and Hari Parbat with Islamic names are avoidable as it will create unnecessary friction between two regions and religions. Some decisions of LG administration may be undone like revival of Darbar Move which was a century old time-tested practice, instrumental in cementing the bonds of goodwill and social bonding between the people of Kashmir and Jammu besides benefiting the traders of Jammu A realistic view needs to be taken to avoid confrontation and BJP should also be little positive in their responses and statements.
Among the first decisions the cabinet recommended to Modi Govt was to restore Statehood and it was heartening that the LG Manoj Sinha promptly cleared the Cabinet Resolution for the Central Govt. Likewise, when the Assembly meets in the first week of November, it is likely to adopt a formal resolution for restoration of Statehood which the PM Modi has been assuring the people during election campaign, commitment made in the Parliament and later in the Supreme Court during hearing on Article 370. Even though the Modi Govt would not do it, the Omar Govt would complete its promise. Since there are sentiments for it in Jammu region as well, the BJP should support the Resolution and leave it to Modi Govt to take a call on it. On the part of the Congress, it may take it to the Supreme Court.
While Omar has so far demonstrated political maturity, NC supremo, Dr Farooq Abdullah is unpredictable and one can expect anything from him. He is basically emotional and gets swayed quickly to lighten his heart. Recently, he forcefully supported dialogue with Pakistan to bring peace in J&K but in the aftermath of killing of seven workers at a tunnel construction site in Ganderbal area including one Doctor, home constituency of CM Omar, he sounded differently. Saddened by the bloodshed of innocent persons doing work for the people, he slammed Pakistan for this dastardly killing, saying that if terrorists think that they would make J&K Pakistan, “Kashmir would never become Pakistan”. Taking a U-turn of dialogue with Pakistan, he advised Pakistan to stop killings in J&K if it wants friendship with India. This statement is akin to Modi Govt’s policy of “terrorism and dialogue cannot go together”. Little later, he can again espouse dialogue with Pakistan and can bash Modi Govt. He is on record seeking bombing of the terrorist training camps in POJK. That is Farooq Abdullah! You can expect anything from him and given his powerful oration, he sounds convincing, U-turn notwithstanding.
One foreseen danger is that Dr Farooq Abdullah may not make Kashmir an epicenter of anti-Delhi albeit anti-Modi in the company of his friends of INDIA group. He had organised the Opposition `Unity’ Conclave at Srinagar, in October 1983. The anti-Indira stalwarts of that period like Surjit Singh Badal, Biju Patnaik, Jagjivan Ram, N.T Rama Rao etc, representing 17 parties, got together in the salubrious and mesmerising climate of beautiful Kashmir in a bid to show ‘resistance’ to then Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi which cost Dr Abdullah his Govt besides pushing Kashmir into turbulence.
With similar environment being build up in India, and ‘disempowered’ Omar Abdullah Govt in J&K UT, one can only hope that Dr Farooq, with victory in Assembly election, is not tempted to again make Kashmir an epicentre of INDI Alliance against PM Modi who may not be as ruthless as Indira Gandhi but will not be at peace either, unleashing some repercussions. In every case, it is the people who would suffer. To be fair to Dr Farooq Abdullah, he held the view that the sensitive border state of J&K has to maintain a harmonious relationship with Delhi, irrespective of who rules the Centre. Welfare of the people should be more important than wasting time and energy in an unabated political slugfest.
Similar maturity must be demonstrated by the BJP and PM Modi should be active in restraining BJP leaders against unnecessary comments on Omar Govt unless it is politically very essential. Election is over and all parties must forget the bitterness of the campaign and get down in addressing public issues rather than engaging in political brinkmanship. The leadership of both the parties must restrain their loud mouths to give mutual harmony a chance. To the credit of Omar Abdullah, he has so far done well to bridge the gulf between Kashmir and Jammu regions. Let us foster an environment of mutual respect, with the constructive role of BJP within and outside the Assembly.
(Feedback: kbjandial@gmail.com)
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